In recent years, cost-benefit analysis(CBA) has played an important role in disaster risk reduction(DRR)investment decisions, and now increasing attention is being paid to its application in developing countries. This...In recent years, cost-benefit analysis(CBA) has played an important role in disaster risk reduction(DRR)investment decisions, and now increasing attention is being paid to its application in developing countries. This article discusses government investment choices in DRR against typhoon disasters in Shenzhen, China. While the existing literature mainly focuses on disaster mitigation measures such as structural retrofitting, this study proposes a holistic framework of DRR investments in which structural(windproof retrofitting) and financial(insurance premium subsidies and post-disaster relief) are all taken into account.In particular, intermeasure spillover effects are measured and used in CBA. The results show that insurance premium subsidies yield the highest benefit-cost ratio and should be prioritized in investment. Windproof retrofitting comes in second place in terms of the benefit-cost ratio and can be considered when there is a sufficient budget. These results further confirm the need of a holistic review of government DRR investments to derive policy recommendations, while challenges remain in relation to the probabilistic modeling capacity to support CBA.展开更多
Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been d...Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.展开更多
基金Financial support from the China 973 Project under grant 2012CB955404the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of China Project under Grant 2015-ZY-17
文摘In recent years, cost-benefit analysis(CBA) has played an important role in disaster risk reduction(DRR)investment decisions, and now increasing attention is being paid to its application in developing countries. This article discusses government investment choices in DRR against typhoon disasters in Shenzhen, China. While the existing literature mainly focuses on disaster mitigation measures such as structural retrofitting, this study proposes a holistic framework of DRR investments in which structural(windproof retrofitting) and financial(insurance premium subsidies and post-disaster relief) are all taken into account.In particular, intermeasure spillover effects are measured and used in CBA. The results show that insurance premium subsidies yield the highest benefit-cost ratio and should be prioritized in investment. Windproof retrofitting comes in second place in terms of the benefit-cost ratio and can be considered when there is a sufficient budget. These results further confirm the need of a holistic review of government DRR investments to derive policy recommendations, while challenges remain in relation to the probabilistic modeling capacity to support CBA.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2015CB452806)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41701103)
文摘Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.
