摘要
Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.
Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.
基金
supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2015CB452806)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41701103)
