摘要
蒙古国所处的地理位置使其极具地缘战略价值。2015年蒙古国总统在联大宣布实施“永久中立”政策,旨在不冒犯中俄两国的基础上,最大程度地保留与“第三邻国”的关系,获取他国对其安全与战略利益的承诺与保障。然而,该政策很快遭到废除,中立战略被搁置。本文试图以前景理论为分析框架,考察蒙古国选择中立战略的动因,从风险预警下的“历史包袱”、框架效应下的威胁感知、沉没成本效应中的国内政治三方面解读国家的心理因素,并通过分析中立面临的国外大国博弈、国内政治斗争、综合实力不足的三重困境,得出蒙古国难成地缘战略调节点的观点,进而推导出应首先确保国内政策连贯性,并以建设中俄国际运输通道、发展生态旅游业为基点,着力进行经济与民生建设等发展出路。
Mongolia’s geographic location makes it of great geostrategic value. In 2015, the President of Mongolia announced at the UNGA the policy of “Permanent Neutrality” aimed at maximizing rela-tions with “third neighbors” without offending China and Russia, and obtaining the commitment and guarantees of other countries to its security and strategic interests. However, this policy was soon abrogated by the Mongolian People’s Party, which was elected chairman of the State Great Khural in 2016, and then the neutrality strategy was shelved 14 months after the announcement. This paper attempts to analyze the motivation of Mongolia’s choice of the neutrality strategy by using the “Prospect Theory” as the analytical framework, interpreting the state’s psychological factors from three aspects: “historical burden” under the risk warning, threat perception under the framing effect, and domestic politics under the sunk cost effect. And by analyzing the triple dilemma of great powers’ game, domestic political conflicts, and lack of overall strength, the paper is concluded that Mongolia can hardly become a geostrategic regulating point. Then the author deduces that Mongolia should firstly ensure domestic policy coherence, and based on building the international transport corridor between China and Russia to become the trade frontier of the two countries, while progressing the eco-tourism to develop the economy and peoples’ wellbeing.
出处
《社会科学前沿》
2022年第6期2542-2550,共9页
Advances in Social Sciences
