摘要
文章分析了大量的国内外相关研究报导,阐述了滑坡灾害给人类社会造成的重大危害,并对滑坡带来的直接损失与无形或隐伏的间接影响进行了归纳分析。从滑坡预报研究历程的角度,将滑坡预报研究的发展史划分为3个阶段,分别对滑坡预测预报的经验-统计学预报阶段、预测滑坡学形成阶段及现代科技全新预报阶段的国内外研究动态进行了分析。重点分析了目前滑坡预报研究所处的现代科技全新预报阶段之研究成果及方法,并归纳出目前滑坡预报研究领域中多种预报方法的综合应用、各种数理新理论引入、"3S"集成监测预报技术应用等3个特点。在此基础上,进一步分析了目前相关研究存在5个方面的不足,并结合最新研究成果,从滑坡预报理论方法、监测预报技术手段等方面对滑坡预报研究近期的发展趋势进行了初步预测。结论认为,滑坡灾害作为山区人类社会最为严重的自然灾害之一,其预测预报研究目前已进入现代科技全新预报研究阶段的鼎盛时期,计算智能集成预报方法的应用与"3S"集成监测预报技术的进一步应用研究是今后一段时期内滑坡预报研究发展的主题。
This thesis mainly analyzes home and abroad investigative-tendency of landslide forecast.Based on the analysis of a great deal of correlative literature,it expounded many significant dangers of landslide disaster by many cases.Direct losing and invisible or insidious influence by landslide disaster was concluded and analyzed.Three phases of the study progress of landslide forecast,experiential-statistical forecast stage,prediction-landslideology stage and ultramodern forecast stage by contemporary science-technology,were divided from the study-history of landslide forecast and analyzed individually.It analyzed and concluded three characteristics of the ultramodern forecast stage by contemporary science-technology principally.Moreover,it indicated some insufficient aspects of relative studies up to the present,and some investigative-tendency of landslide forecast was deduced from the theory and monitoring technology of landslide prediction.It concludes that today is at the height of power and splendour of the ultramodern landslide-forecast stage by contemporary science-technology,and the approaching subjects of the study of landslide forecast are the application of the computational-intelligent integrated-forecast method and '3S'(GIS,GPS and RS) compositive monitoring technology.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2004年第1期1-4,16,共5页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家科技"十五"重点攻关资助项目(2001BA604A02)
关键词
滑坡
智能预报
“3S”集成技术
地质灾害
landslide
forecast
current research progress
intelligent forecast
'3S' integrated technology
home and abroad
