摘要
随着人口老龄化进程加剧和新型农村社会养老保险制度全面覆盖,农村老年人群与养老需求激增。本文通过构建人口动态平衡方程和农村养老金精算模型,对农村各年龄段人口及养老金收支、差额进行测算,选取老年抚养比、老龄化系数和农村养老金累计差额变量,应用VAR模型实证分析人口老龄化对农村养老金可持续性的冲击。研究结果表明人口老龄化与农村养老金可持续性存在长期均衡关系,人口老龄化程度对农村养老金可持续性具有显著的负向冲击,老年抚养比对农村养老金可持续性的负向冲击效应大于老龄化系数,老年抚养比对农村养老金可持续性冲击的贡献程度呈减小趋势,老龄化系数的贡献程度呈增大趋势,二者最终的贡献度基本相当。本文提出优化人口结构、提高人口素质、积极老龄化等政策建议,以应对人口老龄化和农村养老金不可持续性风险。
With the acceleration of population aging and the comprehensive covering of the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance,rural elderly population and pension demand are increasing. This paper predicts rural population of different ages,pension income,pension expenditure and pension gap by constructing a dynamic balance equation of population and a rural pension actuarial model,selects old-age dependency rate,aging coefficient and rural pension gap as variables,and uses VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on rural pension sustainability. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between the population aging and rural pension sustainability,and the degree of population aging has a significant negative impact on rural pension sustainability; wherein,the negative impact of old-age dependency rate is greater than that of aging coefficient; the contribution of the oldage dependency rate shows a downward trend,while the aging coefficient shows an upward trend,and their contribution turns equal finally. The paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as optimizing population structure,improving population quality and active aging in order to deal with population aging and potentially unsustainable rural pension.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期30-41,共12页
Management Review
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(12CRK008)
陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2015KRM125)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(skz2014005)
