摘要
非洲猪瘟(ASF)是猪的一种烈性传染病。虽然ASF不会感染人类,也不会影响猪和野猪以外的其他动物物种。但由于目前没有有效的疫苗和治疗方法,对养猪业产生巨大威胁,是世界范围内养猪业重点防范的疫病。本研究利用地理信息系统(GIS)方法对我国ASF疫病分布情况,疫情定向趋势和时空聚类情况等进行分析。结果表明:疫情暴发点分布具有明显的方向性,目前疫情的传播主要为东北-西南方向,目前最新疫情报告显示西南地区已出现疫情,该区域应该加强防控。时空扫描统计分析共发现5个聚集区域,风险最高的聚集区域中心位于浙江境内,聚集半径最大的区域涉及目前已报告ASF疫情的内蒙古、辽宁、山西和天津,河北、北京以及山东等暂未疫情报告地区处于该聚集区域内需提高防控意识。
African swine fever(ASF)is a devastating infectious disease of pigs.ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry,due to the lack of vaccines and treatments.In this study,the geographic information system(GIS)spatial analysis was applied to analyze the distribution,dispersion of the epidemic and clustering of ASF in China.The results show that the distribution of the outbreaks has obvious directionality.The current epidemic spread is mainly in the northeastsouthwest.The latest outbreaks shows that there have been some outbreaks in the southwest,and the prevention of the epidemic should be strengthened in southwest area.A total of five clusters were found in the space-time scan statistical analysis.The center of the highest risk cluster was located in Zhejiang province.The cluster with the largest cluster radius involved Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Shanxi,and Tianjin that have reported ASF outbreaks.The provinces that have not yet reported ASF outbreaks,such as Henan,Beijing and Shandong,are also in this cluster and need to raise awareness of prevention and control.
作者
卢易
王烁
易敬涵
钮冰
LU Yi;WANG Shuo;YI Jing-han;NIU Bing(College of Life Sciences,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)
出处
《中国兽医学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期8-13,20,共7页
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science
