摘要
2018年8月初,中国辽宁省沈阳市暴发首例非洲猪瘟疫情,到2019年,防控形势依然严峻,给养猪业带来巨大挑战。论文通过笔者多年动物疫病防控经验及非洲猪瘟流行病学调查、文献查阅,归纳出非洲猪瘟疫情发生潜在的5个主要风险因素及20个亚风险因素,建立了非洲猪瘟疫情潜在风险评估模型。该风险模型的权重计算结果显示,泔水养猪和生猪长距离调运属于高危风险因素,因此禁止泔水养猪及控制生猪长途调运将是非洲猪瘟防控的重点。基于风险评估模型的非洲猪瘟风险概率Y值可对某区域内非洲猪瘟疫情潜在发生风险进行科学分析和准确评估,为动物疫病防控部门及生猪养殖场(户)提供防控指南和技术参考。
The first African swine fever(ASF)outbreak in China occurred in the early August in Shenyang.Presently,the situation of ASF prevention and control is also grim and cause huge burden to Chinese pig industry.The present study summarized 5 critical risk factors and 20 secondary important risk factors,according to our periods of disease prevention and control and through conducting epidemiological investigations and literature review.Therefore,the potential-risk assessment model for ASF was establied.The statistical weight result showed that swill feeding to pigs and pig long-distance transportation are the high risk factors for ASF and which would be the key prevention and control issues.The potential-risk assessment model derived hazard rate(Y value)would provide scientific analysis and accurate assessment for potential risk of ASF.This study would provide the prevention/control guidance and technical reference.
作者
王新
冯鹏
田庆雷
吴萌萌
石龙飞
吴明谦
张靖飞
陈荣
WANG Xin;FENG Peng;TIAN Qing-lei;WU Meng-meng;SHI Long-fei;WU Ming-qian;ZHANG Jing-fei;CHEN Rong(Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center of Xi'an,Xi'an,Shaanxi,710018,China)
出处
《动物医学进展》
北大核心
2020年第12期13-17,共5页
Progress In Veterinary Medicine
基金
西安市科学技术局重点攻关项目[201806115YF103NC11(1)]。
关键词
非洲猪瘟
潜在风险
危险因素
评估模型
African swine fever
potential risk
risk factor
assessment model
