摘要
利用1961-2017年逐日气温、降水、风速气象资料,根据国家标准'气象干旱等级'中定义的MCI指数,结合干旱历史记载,采用多年平均值无量纲化处理、百分位数法确定致旱因子权系数和阈值,构建与国家干旱业务体系相一致的、适合福建的气象干旱监测预警和强度评估体系:确定全省范围内监测气象干旱可能带来灾害影响的临界阈值,用于发布干旱预警;继而根据符合预警的历史干旱过程,研制了福建全省和9地市不同区域气象干旱过程强度定量化评估指标,用于动态的过程强度评估、相似过程比较和历史排位分析等。经过2018年实际业务检验、2018年历史相似年份对比分析和历史重大干旱过程的验证,表明所确定的指标具有很好的业务应用价值。通过系统平台业务化建设,实现了对区域气象干旱风险实时动态监测预警、未来一周干旱预估和过程定量化评估,为干旱灾害防御和风险控制提供了科学的依据。
Drought,such as agricultural drought,ecological drought,hydrological drought and drought of economical origin,is the concrete manifestation of the transmission of meteorological drought to different stages.If there is no suitable conditions,even the occurrence of meteorological drought will not form drought disasters.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to carry out early monitoring,early warning and pre-evaluation of meteorological drought.By means of the daily temperature,precipitation and wind speed meteorological data from1961 to 2017,combined with MCI index defined in the national standard'Grads of meteorological drought'and historical records of drought,the meteorological drought monitoring and early warning and intensity assessment system suitable for Fujian Province which was consistent with the National Drought operational system wasestablished which was used to the weight coefficient and thresholds of drought-inducing factors were confirmed by multiyear mean values and dimensionless method.The critical threshold for monitoring the possibledisasters effects of meteorological drought in the whole province was determined for issuing drought early warning.Then,according to the historical drought process which accords with the early warning,the quantitative assessmentindexes of meteorological drought process intensity in different regions of the province and 9 cities were developed fordynamic process intensity assessment,similar process comparison and historical ranking analysis.After the actual business test,the comparative analysis of the historical similar years in 2018 and the verification of the historical drought process,it shown that the index confirmed by this paper had a good business application value.Through the operational construction of the system platform,the real-timedynamic monitoring and early warning,the prediction of drought in the next week and the quantitative assessment of regional meteorological drought risk were realized,which provided scientific basis for drought disaster
作者
张容焱
庄瑶
薛峰
陈思
林昕
潘航
ZHANG Rongyan;ZHUANG Yao;XUE Feng;CHEN Si;LIN Xin;PAN Hang(Climate Center of Fujian Province,Fuzhou350001,China;Meteorological Observatory of Fujian,Fuzhou350001,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第3期114-122,共9页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505805
2018YFC1505906)
国家自然基金项目(41575052)
2018年中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目
关键词
气象干旱
旱灾风险
监测预警
定量化评估
福建
meteorological drought
drought risk
monitoring and early-warming
quantificational evaluation
Fujian
