摘要
冰雪旅游资源的承载容量问题直接关系到旅游地区的生态平衡和旅游质量的高低。论文首先基于冰雪旅游资源的特点设计了冰雪旅游资源承载容量的评价指标体系;其次,确定了指标权重并依据动向外推法建立了旅游者人数变动模型,对旅游人数进行了预测;在此基础上确立了冰雪旅游资源承载容量的预警区间。通过对A景区的案例分析,证明了所提出的预警管理方法的可行性和实用性,并指出通过指标检测、调控决策以及反馈等手段可以有效地将冰雪旅游资源承载容量控制在合理的区间之内。
The carrying capacity of ice-snow tourism resources is directly related to the ecological balance of tourism areas and the satisfaction of tourists.Firstly the evaluation index system of the carrying capacity of ice-snow tourism resources is constructed based on the characteristics of ice-snow tourism resources.Secondly,the weight of the indicators is determined and the trend extrapolation method is used to construct a model to predict the numbers of ice-snow tourists.Based on these,the early-warning interval of the environmental capacity of ice-snow tourism resources is determined.A case is studied in the final part of the paper to show the applicability and practicability of the early warning management practices.Result points out that through monitoring indicators,decision-making mechanism and feedback mechanism,the environmental capacity of ice-snow tourism resources can be controlled within a reasonable range effectively.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第S1期659-665,共7页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划资助项目(114B044)
关键词
冰雪旅游资源
承载容量
评价指标体系
预警管理
ice-snow tourism resources
carrying capacity
evaluation index system
early warning management
