摘要
为客观反映某一地区的本质化安全程度,运用事故死亡弹性指标和云模型,探究危险化学品企业事故的时空分布规律及其致因。基于既有统计指标,提出兼顾事故起数、死亡人数的评估指标(事故死亡弹性);将事故死亡弹性视为不确定性概念,采用云模型分析2000—2011年山东省危化品企业事故时空分布的均匀性和稳定性,并分析事故的直接原因。结果表明:在时间尺度上,4月份事故严重程度最高,且分布呈现很大的不稳定性,6月份事故严重程度最低,12月份事故严重度分布最为稳定;在空间尺度上,鲁西南地区事故严重程度分布不均匀性和不稳定性最大,鲁中地区的事故不均匀性较小且稳定;易燃易爆化学品为事故主要致因物,操作错误、忽视安全、忽视警告为导致事故的主要不安全行为。
In order to objectively reflect the safety degree of a certain area,the accident death elasticity index and cloud model were applied to explore the spatial and temporal distribution and the causes of accidents in hazardous chemicals enterprises.Fatality elasticity was established on the basis of the existing statistical indicators as a new evaluation index.Cloud model was used to investigate the uniformity and stability of spatial and temporal distribution of accidents in Shandong province from 2000 to 2011.Finally,the direct cause of accidents was analyzed statistically based on the space-time scale.The results show that in the temporal dimensions,accident severity in April is the highest and its distribution shows great instability,the lowest in June,and the distribution of accident severity is the most stable in December,that in the spatial dimensions,the uneven and unstable distribution of accident severity is the largest in Southwest Shangdong,and the unevenness of accident severity in centralis small and stable,and that flammable and explosive chemicals are the main cause of accidents,and operational errors and neglect of safety and warning are the main unsafe act.
作者
周江涛
张俊朋
ZHOU Jiangtao;ZHANG Junpeng(School of Economics and Management,Binzhou University,Binzhou Shandong 256603,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期49-55,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目资助(15CGL048)
关键词
危险化学品企业
事故死亡弹性
云模型
时空分布
事故致因
hazardous chemicals enterprises
fatality elasticity
cloud model
spatial and temporal distribution
accident cause
