摘要
贸易畅通是丝绸之路经济带建设的重要内容,贸易合作是贸易畅通的重要方式之一,探索贸易合作的影响因素对促进其升级有重大意义。文章构建了影响中国新疆与中亚国家贸易合作升级的理论框架,采用基于传统贸易引力模型的多变量两水平分析模型对中国新疆与中亚国家贸易合作升级的影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明:中国新疆与中亚国家的经济规模、相对距离、人口数量、贸易结合度和上海合作组织中亚成员对中国新疆与中亚国家贸易合作升级具有直接影响,其中,贸易双方的经济规模、贸易结合度和上海合作组织中亚成员存在正向影响,而相对距离和人口数量却存在负向影响。除此之外,人口数量、贸易结合度和上海合作组织中亚成员还对贸易双方的出口供给能力、进口需求能力和相对贸易运输成本进行调节并发挥间接作用。
The smooth flow of trade is an important part of the Silk Road Economic Belt development, and the trade cooperation is an important way for the smooth flow. It is therefore significant to explore factors affecting its upgrading. This paper proposed a theoretical framework for the Escalation of the trade cooperation between Xinjiang in China and Central Asia countries and analyzed the concerned factors with the application of Two Multi-Level Variable Analysis Model that is based on traditional Trade Gravity Model. The results showed that the economic size, relative distance, population, intensity of trade and the trade upgrading of Central Asian member states of Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Xinjiang Central Asian countries have direct impacts on the escalation of trade cooperation between Xinjiang and Central Asia countries, of which a positive impact exists in terms of bilateral economic size, intensity of trade and member states of SCO, and a negative one in terms of the relative distance and population. In addition, population, intensity of trade and SCO member states also play an indirect role in adjusting export supply, import demand and transport costs.
出处
《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2017年第6期57-64,72,共9页
Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国与中亚区域贸易投资便利化推进战略研究"(13BGJ024)
关键词
中国新疆
中亚五国
贸易合作升级
影响因素
多变量两水平分析模型
Xinjiang
Five-Central Asian Countries
Escalation of Trade Cooperation
Factors
Two Multi-Level Variable Analysis Model
