摘要
自“丝绸之路经济带”正式提出以来,我国与沿线国家秉持政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的理念开展了多次合作,为实现互利共赢、共同发展的目标而努力。构建中国-中亚命运共同体正是“一带一路”的重要内容,也是实现区域经济一体化的重要途径,对促进中亚地区经济发展与和谐稳定也有着十分重大的意义。而原油作为中国-中亚贸易合作的重要战略性资源,其重要性不言而喻。因此,文章基于MS-VAR模型,探究国际原油价格波动对中国-中亚贸易合作的冲击。研究表明:第一,经济系统可以划分为波动期(区制1)和平稳期(区制2);第二,原油价格与中国-中亚贸易合作情况间彼此关联,且具有显著的“非线性”特征。当经济系统处于波动期时,国际原油价格正冲击对中国-中亚贸易合作产生明显的推动作用。当经济系统处于平稳期时,国际原油价格正冲击对中国-中亚贸易合作产生的效应较为微弱。研究通过了稳健性检验,并基于上述结论提出了三点政策建议:第一,关注波动期时国际原油价格波动趋势;第二,多元化合作模式;第三,加快上海原油现货和期货市场的建设。
Since the"Silk Road Economic Belt"was officially proposed,China and the countries along the Belt and Road have carried out cooperation for many times in the spirit of political mutual trust,economic integration and cultural inclusion,and worked hard to achieve the goal of mutual benefit,win-win results and common development.Building a China-Central Asia community with a shared future is not only an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative,but also an important way to achieve regional economic integration.It is also of great significance for promoting economic development,harmony and stability in Central Asia.As a strategic resource for China-Central Asia trade cooperation,the importance of crude oil is self-evident.Therefore,based on the MS-VAR model,this paper explores the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China-Central Asia trade cooperation.This study shows that,the economic system can be divided into volatile periods(Zone 1)and stationary periods(Zone 2),and that crude oil prices are correlated with China-Central Asia trade cooperation and have significant'non-linear'characteristics.The study passes the robustness test and makes three policy proposals based on these findings:first,paying attention to the trend of international crude oil price fluctuations during volatile periods;second,diversifying cooperation models;and third,accelerating the construction of Shanghai crude oil spot and futures markets.
作者
高丽
卢茜
GAO Li;LU Xi(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,School of Finance,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830012;Ningxia Rural Economic Management Station,Yinchuan,Ningxia,750001)
出处
《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
北大核心
2024年第4期71-81,共11页
Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“能源商品金融化、价格冲击与中国—中亚经济合作研究”(71764028)
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“新疆绿色技术创新的金融支持体系研究”(21BJY062)。
