摘要
中长期负荷预测是电力系统规划和调度的基础和重要前提。针对传统预测方法精度低且适用性差的缺陷,结合灰色预测理论,提出了一种基于自适应权重缓冲理论的综合改进预测方法。该方法不仅通过对比置换法减少了奇异数据对预测模型的干扰,同时利用自适应权重缓冲的方法对不同权重进行迭代,以满足预测值与实际值离差平方和最小为目标,求得模型最优背景值权重系数,最后通过对预测结果的残差修正,进一步提升了预测精度。通过实际的电网数据仿真表明,所提出的基于自适应权重缓冲理论的中长期负荷预测方法具有更佳的预测精度和更强的适用性。
The medium and long term load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and scheduling.In vicu of the shortcomings ol traditional forecasting methods with low accuracy and poor applicability,this paper proposes a new method based on adaptive weight buffer theory by combining with the theory of grey prediction.By the method,the influence of singular data on prediction model is reduced with the comparative replacement and different weights is iterated with the adaptive weight buffer,taking a minimum sum of deviation square between predicted and actual value as the objective to obtain the weight coefficient of optimal background value.Finally,the prediction accurac) is improved through correcting the prediction results.The simulation results show that the proposed method has better prediction accuracy and stronger applicability based on the adaptive weight theory buffer in this paper.
出处
《陕西电力》
2016年第7期33-37,87,共6页
Shanxi Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477121)
关键词
中长期负荷预测
灰色预测理论
对比置换法
自适应权重缓冲
残差处理
medium and long term load forecasting
gray forecasting theory
comparative replacement method
adaptive weight buffer theory
residual processing
