摘要
中长期电量预测是电网调峰、电源和电网建设规划以及电力需求侧管理等工作的基础。在研究传统中长期灰色预测模型的基础上,分别引入滑动平均、幂函数变换和结合预期影响等方法,改进了传统灰色模型的数据预处理环节。其中的预期影响调整环节是首次被应用到电量预测中,通过挖掘和利用更多、更深层次的信息,使预测精度得到提升。此外,介绍了定量检测模型拟合和预测精度的手段;利用介绍的多种改进模型,根据中国1999—2011年的电量数据,分稳定期和波动期情景对模型进行拟合和预测的对比研究,也测算了2012、2013年全国用电情况。
The medium-long term power load forecasting is fundamental to system regulation,power plant and network construction and demand side management.Based on the conventional medium-long term grey forecasting model,the moving average,transformation of power functions and the expected inpacts are introduced to improve the data preprocessing of the traditional grey model.It is the first time that the expected impact adjustment component is applied to power load forecasting.Through deeper mining and sufficient utilization of information,the prediction accuracy can be improved.The methods for evaluating the fitting and prediction accuracy of the model quantitatively are also introduced.At last,based on the power loads in China between 1999 and 2011,the fitting and prediction accuracy of the improved methods are compared in two scenes.And,the power loads of 2012 and 2013 are also predicted with the improved methods.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期111-114,118,共5页
Electric Power
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(11ML35)
关键词
灰色模型
平滑处理
预期影响
拟合精度
预测精度
grey model
smoothing
expected influence
fitting accuracy
prediction accuracy
