摘要
探讨X-11-ARIMA方法在我国麻疹疫情的季节波动分析和短期预测中的应用,为及时采取预防措施提供理论依据.基于2004-2015年我国麻疹月发病人数数据,运用ARIMA乘积季节模型分析麻疹流行趋势并进行短期预测,运用X-11方法分析其季节波动和长期趋势.麻疹月发病人数带有稳定的季节效应,每年的4、5月份为麻疹高发期,9月至11月处于发病低谷期.X-11-ARIMA可用于麻疹发病的季节波动分析和短期预测.
To explore the application of X-11-ARIMA model in seasonal fluctuations analysis of short-term prediction of measles, and provide a theoretical basis for disease prevention and control. Based on monthly incidence data of measles in China from January 2004 to December2015, epidemic trend and short-term prediction was calculated by the multiple seasonal ARIMA model. While the X-11 method was established to analyze the seasonal fluctuation and the longterm trend. The time series of monthly incidence data showed a stable seasonal effect and the trend is generally same every year. April and May is the peak and the incidence is low during December to the following February. The X-11-ARIMA model can be used to analyze the seasonal fluctuation of the measles and make a short-term prediction.
出处
《生物数学学报》
2017年第2期179-186,共8页
Journal of Biomathematics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(11271369)资助
