摘要
目的探寻江苏省痢疾疫情的季节分布规律,为及时采取预防措施提供理论依据。方法应用x-11-ARIMA过程分析江苏省2000年至2012年的痢疾月度数据,采用SAS软件将时间序列数据拆分成长期趋势起伏T,季节波动S,不规则波动I三个部分。结果痢疾发病带有一定季节性,每年重复进行,趋势大体相同;每年的7、8月份为痢疾高发期,12月至次年的3月份处于发病低谷期;2000-2005年季节因子波动振幅较大,而后随时间推移有减弱的趋势。结论痢疾的发生比较稳定,x-11-ARIMA模型分析其季节分布规律有较好的科学性和实用性。
Objective To explore the seasonal distribution of dysentery in Jiangsu province, and provide a theoretical basis for disease prevention and control. Methods The monthly data between January 2000 to October 2012 is collected, and we apply x-11-ARIMA to extract secular trend, seasonal fluctuation and irregular fluctuation from the distribution of dysentery. Re- suits Dysentery distributes with a season rule, and the trend is generally same every year. July and August is the peak, and the incidence is low during December to the following 3 months. The season factor fluctuation amplitude is bigger in 2000-2005, then it has a diminished trend over time. Conclusion the distribution of dysentery is stable, and it is scientific and practical to apply x-11 -ARIMA to analyze seasonal rule of dysentery.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期395-398,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
“十二五”国家科技重大专项(2011ZX10004-902)
江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2010079)
江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109)
江苏省高校优势学科建设资助项目
