摘要
利用东天山北坡5个国家级地面气象站1961—2016年逐日气温和降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析、累积距平、滑动平均及Mann-Kendall突变方法,对该区域气温、降水变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:近56 a东天山北坡年、季、月平均气温均呈上升趋势,年增温率为0.34℃/10 a,四季中秋季增温最显著,各月中2月增温最明显,空间分布上以巴里坤为低值中心逐渐向两侧增大,1993年为气温突变年。年降水量以13.02 mm/10 a速率增加,四季均表现为增湿,且以夏季增湿最显著,空间分布上以木垒为大值中心逐渐向两侧减小,降水在1992年发生由少到多的突变。东天山北坡近56 a气候总体呈现明显的暖湿化变化趋势。
The characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes in the region were analyzed by using daily air temperature and precipitation data of five weather stations on the north slope of eastern Tianshan mountain in 1961—2016, and linear trend analysis, the cumulative departure, moving average and Mann-Kendall mutation method. The results showed that in the recent 56 years, the annual, seasonal, monthly average temperatures on north slope of eastern Tianshan were on the rise, and warming rate was 0.34℃/decade;warming is the most significant in autumn among the four seasons, and warming trend in February was the most obvious;on the spatial distribution, low values center was found in Barkol and the values increased gradually on both side. There was a mutation from low to high temperature in 1993. The annual, seasonal precipitation presented significantly increasing trend, and the annual rainfall increase rate was 13.02 mm/decade. Summer humidifying was the most significant. On the space distribution, big value center was observed in Mulei and the value reduced gradually on both sides. There was a mutation from less to more rainfall in 1992. There was a significant trend of warming and humidification on the northern slope of eastern Tianshan Mountain in nearly 56 years.
作者
苗运玲
秦榕
张云惠
伏晓慧
MIAO Yunling;QIN Rong;ZHANG Yunhui;FU Xiaohui(Urumqi Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830006,China;Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center,Urumqi,Xijiang830002,China:Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau,Urumqi 830002,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第3期219-223,231,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目"天山北坡短时强降水预报预警技术研究"(IDM2016001)
关键词
东天山
气温
降水
气候变化
突变检验
eastern Tianshan Mountain
temperature
precipitation
climate change
mutation test
