摘要
气候变化是影响草原区植被与环境状况的重要因素。利用呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗1958—2016年的气温和降水数据资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平分析法、M-K检验法和Morlet小波分析等方法,从不同时间序列上,对该地区近59年的气候变化趋势、极端气候以及突变现象进行分析。结果表明:年平均气温以0.354℃/10a的速率上升,上升趋势显著;四季平均气温均呈现增温趋势,其中春季增温趋势最大;1985—1986年发生了由低温到高温的突变;研究区年平均气温存在11a的强显著周期。研究区年降水量整体以8.68 mm/10a的速率呈下降趋势,变化趋势不显著;降水集中在夏季(6—8月),占全年降水量的72.9%,7月降水量最大,有效降水日数最多;1961—1962年和1981—1982年降水发生突变;极端降水指标中日最大降水量、连续5d最大降水量、强降水量、极强降水量、强降水比率、连续无雨日数、零降水量日数均呈现递减趋势,仅降水强度呈递增趋势,变化趋势均不显著;Morlet小波分析表明研究区年降水量存在52a的强显著周期。新巴尔虎右旗近59a气候总体呈现干旱化趋势。
Climate change is an important factor affecting vegetation and environmental conditions in grassland areas.Based on the temperature and precipitation from1958 to 2016in the Xin Barag Right Banner,the methods including linear inclination estimation,cumulative anomaly analysis,M-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze and study the trend of climate change,extreme climate and mutation in this region during 1958-2016 from different time sequence.The main results of this research are as follows：the average annual temperature increases at the rate of 0.354 ℃/10 a in study area,and the rising trend is obvious.The average temperature of the four seasons is warming trend,especially in the spring..The mutation from low temperature to high temperature occurred in 1985-1986.The annual mean temperature of the study area has a strong period of 11 a.The annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 8.68 mm/10 a,and the trend is not significant.The precipitation in the study area is mainly concentrated in the summer,and the proportion of precipitation in June-August is 72.9%.There have largest precipitation and highest effective precipitation days in July The precipitation changed abruptly in1961-1962 and 1981-1982.The maximum precipitation,the maximum precipitation for 5 consecutive days,the heavy rainfall,the strong precipitation,the strong precipitation ratio,the number of continuous rain days and the zero precipitation days all showed decreasing trend,only the precipitation intensity showed not obvious increasing trend;Morlet wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant period of 52 a for annual precipitation in the study area.For this region,the climate of Xin Barag Right Banner area showed a trend of drought during the past 59 years.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期1006-1015,共10页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31470504
31670455)
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0500908)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DC201501070101)
关键词
气温
降水
突变检验
小波分析
新巴尔虎右旗
temperature
precipitation
abrupt change test
wavelet analysis
Xin Barag Right Banner
