摘要
本文构建了基于贸易增加值的调整成本指数Sv,以此测算中美贸易中中国制造业的调整成本,分析了美国对华加征关税对中国相关产业的影响。结果表明:在中美贸易中,中国制造业普遍面临着扩张性的调整成本,且存在着较大的产业间差异;美国对华加征关税商品主要分布在中国处于扩张性调整成本的产业,加征关税将给这些产业带来较大的调整压力。本文的政策建议一是将贸易保护引致的调整成本作为中美贸易谈判的重要参考,对中国制造业的进一步开放和保护做出合理取舍;二是建立调整成本风险预警机制,规避贸易保护的不利影响。
This paper estimates the adjustment cost of China’s manufacturing industry in Sino-US trade by Sv index based on trade in value added.And we analyze the influence of the U.S.tariffs on China’s relevant industries.The results show that:Domestic manufacturing industries are generally facing expansionary adjustment costs,and there are large inter-industry differences.The goods subject to additional tariffs mainly distribute in the industries with expansionary adjustment costs,and the addition of tariffs is not conducive to the expansion of these industries.Finally,policy suggestions are proposed based on the research conclusions.First,the adjustment cost caused by trade protection is taken as an important reference for Sino-US trade negotiations to make a reasonable trade-off for the further opening and protection of China’s manufacturing industry.The second is to establish an early warning mechanism for adjusting cost risk in order to avoid the adverse impact of trade protection.
作者
王军英
张姝
WANG Jun-ying;ZHANG Shu(Xingtai University,Xingtai 054001,Hebei Province,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《上海对外经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期16-25,共10页
Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics
关键词
中美贸易摩擦
贸易增加值
调整成本
Sino-US trade friction
trade in value added
adjustment cost
