摘要
【目的/意义】在社会转型期各种矛盾交织,突发公共事件频现引发舆情危机的环境中,研究舆情爆发机制及治理有重要意义。【方法/过程】本文基于爆炸性渗流理论,考虑各节点不同影响力构建了改进的社会舆情爆炸性传播模型,探究了舆情可能的爆发机制。进而提出随机免疫、目标包围免疫、全面科普三种舆情治理选择,通过仿真和案例分析验证其合理性。【结果/结论】研究发现:社会舆情的爆发存在阈值,在感染率小于阈值前爆发规模几乎为0,超过阈值后会快速引爆舆论场。对比随机免疫,目标包围免疫能够有效控制舆情爆发,而全面科普作用时间较久,研究可为政府的舆情治理提供一点新思路。
【Purpose/significance】It is of great significance to study the mechanism and governance of public opinion during the period of social transition where various contradictions are intertwined and public emergencies frequently trigger the public opinion crisis.【Method/process】 Based on the theory of explosive percolation, considering the different influence of different nodes, an improved explosive propagation model of social public opinion has been constructed, and the possible mechanism of public opinion has been explored. Then three kinds of public opinion governance choice is put forward: random immunization, target-surrounded immunization, and comprehensive science popularization, and its rationality is verified by simulation and case analysis.【Result/conclusion】The study found that: There is a threshold for the outbreak of social public opinion. When the infection rate is less than the threshold, the scale of the outbreak is almost zero.After the threshold is exceeded, the public opinion field will quickly detonate. Compared with random immunization, the target-surrounded immunization can effectively control the outbreak of public opinion, while the comprehensive science popularization time is longer. The research can provide a new idea for the government’s public opinion governance.
作者
朱晓霞
孟建芳
宋嘉欣
ZHU Xiao-xia;MENG Jian-fang;SONG Jia-xin(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期43-48,80,共7页
Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"公共危机中伪信息的扩散机理与控制研究"(71301140)
河北省自然科学基金项目"公共危机伪信息扩散的网络拓扑与情景应对模型研究"(G2015203425)
河北省三三三人才工程项目"公共危机伪信息扩散的网络拓扑与情景应对模型研究"(A2016002038)
关键词
爆炸渗流
突发公共事件
社会舆情
治理选择
explosive percolation
public emergencies
social public opinion
governance option
