摘要
如何提高现金流预测的精确程度、确定合理的折现率和如何应对变化进行弹性决策是净现值法在创业投资中应用的三大难点问题。本文提出了解决问题的初步思路,并指出财务预测—估值模型、蒙特卡罗模拟技术与实物期权法的结合运用,是未来创业投资项目估值方法发展演变的主流趋势。
The paper probes into three diffcult problems of applying the net present value method in the course of venture investment valuation, including how to improve the accuracy of cash flow forecast, how to set the applicable discount rate and the elastic decision-making due to the failure of net present value method. The paper also provides readers with tentative train of thoughts in solving these problems, and some latest valuation techniques such as financial forecast and valuation model, Montecarlo simulation, and real option method. The paper predicts that the combination and use of the three new techniques are the mainstream tendency inthe future development of venture in vestment valuation.
关键词
创业投资
净现值法
难点问题
net present value
venture investment
difficult problem
