摘要
本文基于实物期权方法分析企业信息系统实施决策的有关规律,针对企业实施信息系统的阶段性特征构建投资决策的概念模型,利用一般化随机过程刻画信息系统实施的风险,在无套利均衡分析基础上得到决策柔性的价值表达式,综合形成信息系统项目价值的优化模型,并结合案例实证估算柔性决策所蕴涵的实物期权价值,分析实物期权对系统实施决策的影响。算例分析的结果显示,在信息系统实施时,存在最优的系统投资规模或资金分配比例,使得系统实施价值最高。
This paper analyzes the regulation of the decision of enterprise information system(IS)implementation based on real options approach.According to the staged feature of the decision procedure,a concept model is constructed and a generalized stochastic procedure is employed to embody the uncertainty in IS implementation.With the help of the no arbitrage arguments,the values of the real options involved in the decision flexibility are estimated to get the synthesis model of the project value.When the optimal objectives are set up,the optimization model can be put forward to make the best decision.From the case for computation,we can estimate the value of the real options embedded in the decision procedure and realize the significant effects on the decision results of the IS construction.Furthermore,we can get the maximum net value of IS implementation with the optimal investment scale and allocation proportions.
作者
李慧
仲秋雁
裘江南
Li Hui;Zhong Qiuyan;Qiu Jiangnan(School of Management,Dalian University of Teehnolgy,Dalian 116024)
出处
《信息系统学报》
2008年第1期75-81,共7页
China Journal of Information Systems
关键词
信息系统
决策
实物期权
Information System
Decision making
Real options
