摘要
近年来,劳动要素市场供求形势出现转折,实体经济旧有增长模式开始失灵失速,国民支出偏向金融房地产。这种投资去实体化的取向,在短期内压低消费率提高储蓄率的同时,导致资金在金融资产和房地产市场内部循环,难以形成具有生产能力的固定资本,推高了经济运行成本,进而导致长期资金回报率不断下降,国民储蓄来源渐趋枯竭,国民储蓄率下降。不尽合理的国民收入分配格局也是压低国民储蓄率、进而压低经济增长率的重要原因。但是,国民储蓄率的下降趋势并不意味着投资动力枯竭。积极转变经济增长方式,摆脱土地财政依赖,构建更加合理的分配格局,开放更多的投资领域,实现生产要素在部门、地区、城乡之间的双向流动,能够帮助实现更为合理的投资回报率和国民储蓄率,帮助实现国民经济健康可持续发展。
This paper analyses the changing of national savings rate in China. In recent years,there appears a turning point in the supply-demand situation of labor factor market: the old growth mode of the real economy does not work so well as to lose its speed in growth,and investment goes to real estate finance. This investment mode of de-substantiation,though keeping high national savings rate in the short term,leads to internal circulation of funds in the financial assets market,making it difficult for the funds to flow into the capital pool necessary in increasing productivity. It pushes up the cost of economic operation,and leads to the decline of the longterm return on capital,the depletion of national savings sources,and the decline of national savings rate. The unreasonable pattern of national income distribution also contributes a lot to keeping low the national savings rate, and consequently the economic growth rate. The declining of the national savings rate,however,does not necessarily mean the exhaustion of investment motivation. We need to actively change the mode of economic growth,get rid of the dependency on estate-based finance,build a more reasonable income distribution pattern and make more areas open to investment. And these measures may help achieve a more reasonable rate of return on investment,the growth in national savings,and all in all a sound sustainable development of the national economy in China.
作者
张车伟
赵文
ZHANG Ju-wei;ZHAO Wen
出处
《南京大学学报（哲学．人文科学．社会科学）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期70-86,159-160,共18页
Journal of Nanjing University(Philosophy,Humanities and Social Sciences)
