摘要
本文在运用主成分分析和典型判别分析方法的基础上,提出了预测我国上市公司经营失败的主成分判别模型,并对我国沪深两市2000年至2002年间142家上市公司进行了经营失败预测研究,结果显示企业的盈利指标、景气指标、资本市场指标和增长性指标等4个主成分最能解释我国上市公司的经营失败情况。模型方法和分析在企业内部风险控制、银行贷款信用评级和资本市场投资估价等领域具有较高的应用价值。
Based on principle component analysis and canonical discriminant analysis,the paper presents a new approach named PCA discriminant model to empirically predict the corporate distress in China.The study on the prediction of the corporate distress of 142 companies in both the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen between 2000 and 2002 shows that the profit barometer,business barometer, capital market baromenter as well as growth barometer are four principle components which can, to the greatest extent,explain the corporate distress of listed companies in China.Through PCA,the paper has identified four components that have notable potential in prognosis.The approaches and results of the model is highly applicable in internal risk control,credit evaluation and capital market investment guidelines.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第5期52-57,共6页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(00CJY026)。
