摘要
近年来,中国的人口形势发生了很大变化。2014年,中国放松了计划生育政策,实施了"单独二孩"政策;2016年,更进一步实施了"全面二孩"政策。人口政策的变化,为人口变化增加了额外的推动力量。人口形势的变化、生育政策的调整,无疑会对中国教育事业的发展产生重大影响。未来一段时期内,随着城镇化进程的推进,出生人口的短期增长连同进城农村人口增加带来的入学需求增长,必然会使城市教育供给面临着越来越大的压力,基础教育资源日渐紧张。受人口空间分布格局的影响,东部地区将面临着教育资源供给紧张的格局。尤其是在一些特大城市,由于人口基数庞大,政策放开带来的效果更加明显,基础教育资源供给不足的问题将非常突出。需要指出的是,生育政策调整导致的新增出生人口数最终会随着政策的稳步实施而稳定下来。在达到一定的峰值之后,常住新出生人口仍会趋于递减。因此,教育部门在确定基础教育资源供给的时候,应当充分考虑到这种短期和长期效应,既要注意短期入学需求旺盛的问题,又要考虑长远教育需求呈现稳定或递减的趋势。
In recent years,the demographic situation in China has undergone great changes.Especially since 2014,the"separate two-child"policy has been implemented,and since 2016,the "two-child"policy has been further implemented.The reform of thebirth policy and changes in the population situation will undoubtedly have a major impact on the development of China's education.In the coming period,with the advancement of urbanization,the short-term growth of the birth population,together with the increase in the demand for enrolment brought about by the increase in rural population in cities,will increase the pressure on urban education and increase the resources for basic education.Due to the spatial distribution pattern of the population,the eastern region will face a tight supply of educational resources.Especially in some megacities,due to the large population base,the effect of policy liberalization is more pronounced,and the problem of insufficient supply of basic education resources will be very prominent.What needs to be pointed out is that the number of new births caused by the adjustment of the birth policy will eventually stabilize with the steady implementation of the policy.After reaching a certain peak,the resident population will still tend to decline.Therefore,when determining the supply of basic education resources,the education department should fully consider this short-term and long-term effect.It is necessary to solve the problem of strong short-term school enrollment and to consider that the demand for long-term education shows a stable or declining trend.
出处
《教育经济评论》
2018年第3期14-39,共26页
China Economics of Education Review
基金
全国教育科学规划办特别委托课题"2016-2030年人口变动情况及城乡
区域分布对教育供给的影响研究"
泰山学者工程专项经费资助项目
