摘要
'一带一路'倡议提出近六年来,中国与沿线国家的贸易领域逐步拓宽,贸易结构得到优化,贸易合作取得丰硕成果。本文通过构建拓展的贸易引力模型,引入2007-2016年中国对'一带一路'沿线国家的货物出口数据,添加虚拟变量和质量指标变量,分析这些因素的影响方向和影响大小,进而对中国与'一带一路'沿线国家的贸易潜力进行比较严谨的测算。结论表明,中国对东南亚、西亚北非、中亚地区国家处于'出口过度'阶段,而对东北亚、南亚、中东欧国家处于'出口不足'阶段,因而中国与这些国家贸易潜力巨大,未来中国同'一带一路'沿线国家开展经贸合作时,应坚持'进出并重'的贸易政策,提升进出口的贸易便利化水平,防范政治风险。
By constructing an extended trade gravity model, introducing the cargo export data of China for countries along 'The Belt and Road' from 2007 to 2016, adding dummy variables and quality indicator variables, this paper analyzes the direction and size of the impacts of these factors, and then conducts stringent calculation of trade potential of countries along 'The Belt and Road'. Conclusions show that China is in the stage of 'excessive export' to the countries in Southeast Asia, West Asia, North Africa, and Central Asia, while in the stage of 'insufficient export' to the countries in Northeast Asia, South Asia, Central and Eastern Europe.When conducting economic and trade cooperation with the countries along 'The Belt and Road' in the future, China should adhere to the trade policy of 'paying equal attention to import and export', improve the level of trade facilitation of imports and exports, and guard against political risks.
出处
《中国经济报告》
2019年第3期48-58,共11页
CHINA POLICY REVIEW
关键词
一带一路
拓展的引力模型
出口潜力实现比例
The Belt and Road
Extended Trade Gravity Model
Achievement Ratio of Export Potential
