摘要
我国水产品价格长期剧烈波动,尤其近年来水产品价格总体呈现大涨大跌,严重影响了渔业产业链的平稳与健康发展。我国渔业亟待建立指标架构全面、预测功能较好且预警期较长的水产品价格预警体系。本文以典型海水养殖产品大菱鲆为例,构建水产品价格预警指标体系,进而建立神经网络模型对水产品价格预警进行实证分析。要构建完善的水产品市场风险预警机制,需要建立科学的市场监测与信息采集制度、信息技术与财政保障机制以及多元化的市场风险对冲机制。
The price of aquatic products has fluctuated sharply for a long time. In particular,the prices of aquatic products have shown a big ups and downs in recent years, which has seriously affected the stable and healthy development of the fishery industry chain.China’s fisheries urgently need to establish an early warning system for aquatic product prices with comprehensive indicator structure, good forecasting function and long warning period.In this paper, a typical marine aquaculture product, turbot, is used as an example to construct a warning index system for aquatic product prices, and then a neural network model is established to empirically analyze the price warning of aquatic products.To build a sound early warning mechanism for aquatic product market, it is necessary to establish a scientific market monitoring and information collection system, a information technology and financial guarantee mechanism, and a diversified market risk hedging mechanism.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期94-97,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
现代农业产业技术体系专项资金资助(CARS-47)
