摘要
作为中高端海水产品,近年来半滑舌鳎的价格波动剧烈,对养殖户和消费者造成了较大影响。对2010—2020年半滑舌鳎月度价格的波动特征及其影响因素进行分析的结果表明,月度价格存在明显的季节性和周期性特征,周期约为5年;在所选变量中,产量、城镇人均可支配收入、海表温度和货币供应量对半滑舌鳎价格有显著影响。其中,半滑舌鳎价格长期下降趋势主要是由于半滑舌鳎产量成本的下降,而波动周期则主要受半滑舌鳎市场供需和养殖时间的影响。脉冲响应分析表明,影响因素与价格之间的关系是非线性的,导致半滑舌鳎价格的未来变化具有不确定性。为保持半滑舌鳎市场的稳定,建议建立半滑舌鳎价格预警系统和信息平台,以便更好地制定策略。
As a medium-and high-end seawater product,the price of cynoglossus semilaevis in China has been fluctuating sharply in recent years,which has had a great impact on farmers and consumers.In this paper,the authors analyzes the characteristics and potential causes of the monthly price fluctuation of cynoglossus semilaevis from 2010 to 2020.The results show that the monthly price of cynoglossus semilaevis has distinct seasonal and cyclic characteristics with a cycle of about 5 years.Among various selected variables,it is found that yield,per capita urban disposable income,sea surface temperature(SST)and money supply have significant impacts on the price of cynoglossus semilaevis.The observed long-term decline trend of cynoglossus semilaevis price is due to the decrease of the farming cost of cynoglossus semilaevis,while the fluctuating cycle is regulated by the demand-supply balance and breeding timescale of cynoglossus semilaevis.The impulse response analysis shows that relationships between affecting variables and price is nonlinear,leading to uncertainty of the future changes in the price of cynoglossus semilaevis.To maintain a stable cynoglossus semilaevis market,it is suggested to establish a cynoglossus semilaevis price warning system and information platform for better strategy-making.
作者
张瑛
胡颖睿
Zhang Ying;Hu Yingrui(College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第3期52-62,共11页
Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化背景下我国近海海洋牧场可持续发展研究”(42176218)。
关键词
半滑舌鳎
价格波动
脉冲响应分析
VAR模型
cynoglossus semilaevis
price fluctuation
pulse response analysis
VAR model
