摘要
在暴露情景假设和评估模型的确定下,有必要对污染场地的风险计算结果有影响的模型参数开展敏感性分析,以便在开展土壤健康风险评估工作时,提高评估的准确性和科学性,节约修复成本。以上海市某污染场地为例,对模型参数敏感性开展敏感性分析。贡献率结果显示,经口摄入土壤和皮肤接触土壤为场地表层污染土壤的主要致癌风险暴露途径。敏感性分析结果显示,致癌风险与体重呈反向变化,当体重参数减小时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动。当体重参数在大范围减小时,敏感程度较高。致癌风险与暴露周期、暴露频率、每日摄入土壤量、暴露皮肤表面积、皮肤表面土壤粘附系数呈同向变化,当这些参数增大时,暴露风险将向不利的方向移动;其中暴露周期和暴露频率的敏感程度中等。上海市敏感用地下苯并(a)蒽、苯并(b)荧蒽、茚并(1,2,3-c,d)芘、苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽风险控制值分别为0.726、0.726、0.726、0.072 6、0.072 6 mg/kg。
Under the assumption of the exposure scenario and the determination of the assessment model, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis on the model parameters that have potential impacts on the risk calculation results of the contaminated site, so as to improve the accuracy and scientificity of the assessment and save the repair cost. Taking a polluted site in Shanghai as an example, the uncertainty analysis of the sensitivity of the model parameters were carried out. The results of contribution rate showed that oral intake of soil and skin contact soil were the main ways of carcinogenic risk exposure to contaminated soil on the surface of the site. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the risk of carcinogenesis and weight change in the opposite direction. When the weight parameter decreased, the exposure risk moved in an unfavorable direction. When the body weight parameter decreased in a large range, the sensitivity was higher. The risk of carcinogenesis changed in the same direction as the exposure period, exposure frequency, daily intake of soil, exposed skin surface area, and skin surface soil adhesion coefficient. When these parameters increased, the exposure risk moved in an unfavorable direction. The sensitivity of exposure period and exposure frequency were moderate. Under the background of this study, the risk control values of benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, indene(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene, benzo(a)pyrene, dibenzo(a, h)anthracene in Shanghai are 0.726, 0.726, 0.726, 0.072 6, 0.072 6 mg/kg, respectively.
作者
刘丹青
朱梦杰
汤琳
LIU Danqing;ZHU Mengjie;TANG Lin(Shanghai Monitoring Centre,Shanghai 200232,China)
出处
《中国环境监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期75-82,共8页
Environmental Monitoring in China
基金
上海市科委项目(18DZ1204203)
关键词
多环芳烃
人体健康
致癌效应
风险评估
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
human health
carcinogenic effects
risk assessment
