摘要
大地震的孕育和发生是震源区及其附近地壳应变能的积累和快速释放过程。当地震孕育到后期,震源区及其附近应变能高度积累,处于极不稳定的临界状态。因此,地震短临预报方法必须基于临界状态的特点。临界状态的最重要特点是触发因素将起重要作用。固体潮的引潮力是一种重要的触发因素。笔者改进了过去仅用月亮固体潮引潮力的地方平太阴时方法,而用月亮与太阳整个固体潮引潮力作为触发因素,显然这样更为科学和合理。研究表明,大地震前震源区及其附近发生的几次显著地震易受固体潮引潮力某个方位附近触发。并应用这一现象结合其他地震前兆方法成功预报了2001年2月23日四川雅江6.0级地震。
The generation and occurrence of a large earthquake is the process of the accumulation and releasing rapidly of strain energy in source region and its vicinity. In the late stage of earthquake generation the accumulated strain energy in the source region and its vicinity reaches high level, which is situated in an instable critical state. The shortterm and impending method of earthquake prediction must be based on features of the critical state. It is known that the most important feature of the critical state is triggering factor playing an important rote. The tidal force of solid tide is an important triggering factor. The author improved the local mean moon time method which used only tidal force of the moon, and use the tidal force both the moon and the sun as the triggering factor, which is more scientific and reasonable. The research results show that several significant shocks happened in source region and its vicinity before a large earthquake are easily triggered by certain directions. The author predicted successfully Yiajang earthquake with MS 6.0 of Feb. 23, 2001 in Sichuan Province, which applies the abovementioned phenomenon, combined other earthquake precursors.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期53-56,共4页
Earthquake
基金
地震科学联合基金项目(100089)
