摘要
金融体系越脆弱,发生金融危机的可能性越大。从金融体系风险暴露、敏感性和风险应对能力3个维度,构建中国金融体系脆弱性评价体系,建立金融体系脆弱性测度模型,并选取1998—2013年实际数据进行实证分析。研究发现:1998—2013年,中国金融体系脆弱性具有明显的阶段化特征,呈现"增—减—增—减"的变化趋势,且两次出现较高脆弱值的时间点均在金融危机之后,表明金融危机对金融体系脆弱性的影响具有滞后性和持续性。此外,中国金融体系面临的风险暴露主要源于流动性风险,且对企业经营负债、信贷膨胀的压力以及汇率变动产生的风险较为敏感,如何降低这些风险也是金融政策和调控的重要方向和目标。
The more fragile financial system,the greater the likelihood of financial crises. The evaluation index system of Chinese financial system is established from three dimensions: risk exposure,sensitivity and risk adaptability capability. Moreover,a model is built for measuring the degree of fragility of Chinese financial system from 1998 to2013. The results show that the degree of fragility presents obvious characteristics of different stages and shows'increase-decrease-increase-decrease'trend from 1998 to2013. The severe fragile figures appear after financial crisis,which indicates the impact of the financial crisis on Chinese financial system having the time-lag and sustainability. The liquidity risk is the main risk factor of risk exposure. At the same time,the financial system shows that the system is more sensitive to enterprises' operating liabilities, credit inflationary pressures and exchange rate fluctuation. All of these are the main controlling and regulating direction and objects for making monetary policy.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2015年第5期55-60 105,105,共7页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71573072)
江苏省2012年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX12_0260)
关键词
金融体系
脆弱性评价
风险暴露
敏感性
应对能力
financial system
fragility evaluation
risk exposure
sensitivity
risk adaptability capability
