摘要
本文在分析中国OFDI影响IFDI规模和质量的汇率传导机制和结构传导机制的基础上,构建了由实际汇率、产业结构、IFDI规模和质量决定方程组成的联立方程组,采用2003—2013年间中国与98个国家(地区)的双边投资面板数据,运用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)进行估计。研究结果表明:中国OFDI的双重传导机制对其IFDI规模和质量有着显著正向影响;尤其对于资源丰富和技术先进的高收入东道国,中国OFDI的结构传导机制能显著提升IFDI质量;金融危机之后,随着中国以产业结构优化为导向的多元化OFDI战略的加快实施,结构传导机制成为中国提升IFDI质量的主要途径。因此,增强中国OFDI和国内产业结构升级的匹配程度,优化外资进入结构成为当前中国提升IFDI质量的重要政策选择。
This paper estimated simultaneous equations including real exchange rate,industrial structure,and quantity and quality of IFDI by using the three-stage least squares( 3SLS) with a panel database of bilateral investment covering 98 countries during 2003 to2013 based on respectively analyzing the exchange rate transmission mechanism and structure transmission mechanism of China’s OFDI on quantity and quality of IFDI. What the results showed are as follows: The dual transmission mechanisms of China’s OFDI have significant positive effects on quantity and quality of IFDI;Especially for high-income countries with abundant resource and advanced technology,the structure transmission mechanism of China’s OFDI can obviously improve quality of IFDI;After the global financial crisis,the structure transmission mechanism of China’s OFDI has become the main mode of improving quality of IFDI under the implementation of diversified OFDI strategies guided by industrial structure optimization. As a result,strengthening the matching degree of OFDI and domestic industrial structure upgrading,and optimizing the foreign capital structure should be China’s important policy choices to improve IFDI quality.
作者
聂飞
刘海云
NIE Fei;LIU Haiyun
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期93-105,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
华中农业大学校自主科技创新基金项目"中国IFDI和OFDI发展的互动机制研究"(2662016QD051)
关键词
OFDI
IFDI规模
IFDI质量
汇率传导机制
结构传导机制
OFDI
Quantity of IFDI
Quality of IFDI
Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanism
Structure Transmission Mechanism
