摘要
针对不完全信息下的突发事件应急风险决策问题,考虑应急决策者有限理性、损失敏感、易受突发事件相关因素影响的特征,提出了一种基于累积前景理论的区间多属性应急风险诀策模型。在对应急决策方案在不同指标及风险状态下的属性值进行规范化处理的基础上,建立正、负理想点作为参考点计算价值函数;基于累积前景理论确定风险概率权重;通过计算各方案的综合前景价值,对应急方案进行排序择优。最后,通过案例分析验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。
A risk decision model for emergency response is constructed considering the characteristics that the emergency decision makers are always boundedly rational,sensitive to the loss and susceptible to the emergency.Based on the normalization of the attribute value with different indexes under different risk states,the positively ideal point and the negatively ideal point are constructed as the reference point to calculate the value function.Then,the probability weights are confirmed according to the cumulative prospect theory.Furthermore,comprehensive prospect value is calculated to determine a ranking of alternatives.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期70-75,共6页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271537)
关键词
应急管理
风险决策
不完全信息
累积前景理论
Emergency Management
Risk Decision
Incomplete Information
Cumulative Prospect Theory
