摘要
[目的/意义]系统动力学的仿真模拟能够全面捕捉政策影响下的复杂社会系统动态性,准确模拟政策干预随时间推移的累积影响,评估政策的实施效果,对于推动政策工具科学高效地制定和使用,以及提高政策效能都有着极其重要的作用。[方法/过程]以人口生育政策实施为样例,基于生育率等关键性影响因素与教育经济等环境影响参数,借助Vensim PLE构建一套系统动力学仿真模型,动态演示人口—政策—经济子系统间的交互,设计执行3项差异化政策干预情景,深入模拟预测不同政策导向下的人口变迁路径与演化趋势。[结果/结论]研究发现,生育政策的放宽在促进人口增长的同时,有效缓解老龄化趋势。但政策影响日渐式微,亟需结构化变革与调整。
[Purpose/Significance]Simulation based on system dynamics can comprehensively capture the dynamics of complex social systems under the influence of policies,accurately simulate the cumulative impact of policy interventions over time,and evaluate the implementation effect of policies,which plays an extremely important role in promoting the scientific and efficient formulation and use of policy tools and improving the effectiveness of policies.[Method/Process]Taking the implementation of fertility policy as an example,based on key influencing factors such as fertility rate and environmental influencing parameters such as education and economy,this paper constructed a simulation system based on system dynamics through Vensim PLE.The model dynamically demonstrated the interactions between the population—policy—economy subsystems and designed and implemented three differentiated policy intervention scenarios,and conducted in-depth simulations to predict the paths of demographic change and the evolutionary trends under different policy orientations.[Result/Conclusion]It is found that the liberalization of fertility policies had effective in mitigating the ageing trend while promoting population growth.However,the impact of the policy is waning and structural changes and adjustments are urgently needed.
作者
沈钰
李英群
刘嘉龙
刘江峰
宋宁远
裴雷
张晶
Shen Yu;Li Yingqun;Liu Jialong;Liu Jiangfeng;Song Ningyuan;Pei Lei;Zhang Jing(School of Information Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Laboratory of Data Intelligence and Interdisciplinary Innovation,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210023,China;The Research Institute for Data Management Innovations,Nanjing University,Suzhou 215163,China;China Mobile Research Institute,Beijing 100053,China)
出处
《现代情报》
北大核心
2025年第1期5-17,32,共14页
Journal of Modern Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“融入智能文本解析的政策创新网络识别与成效监测”(项目编号:72474100)
南京大学-中国移动联合研究院项目《智库能力建设—政策库(一期)》。
关键词
系统动力学
仿真
政策成效
人口生育政策
system dynamics
simulation
policy effectiveness
fertility policy
