摘要
俄乌冲突发生后,地缘政治外溢效应在北极地区迅速显现,北极国家的北极政策“地缘政治化”,北极地区的地缘价值重新被重视,北极地缘政治博弈加剧。北极八国围绕北极地区纷纷展开新的战略部署:一是政治军事上的“新冷战”态势,美国主导下北极“北约化”,在战略上挤压俄罗斯,俄罗斯则加快构筑北方地区的战略防线;二是经济上的极限施压与反制,西方加大制裁俄罗斯北极天然气项目力度,俄罗斯通过加速北极经济开发进程进行反制;三是制度上的“圈子化”,A7在北极治理机制中逼俄“退群”,俄罗斯将合作对象转向域外国家,国际社会对北极治理机制走向的主张出现分歧;四是低政治议题的泛安全化,北极矿产、航道领域的博弈加剧。但是,从“动机—能力”、“成本—收益”、国际共识等层面看,北极地区的地缘政治博弈存在上限,北极治理的“领域合作”仍将持续推进。未来一段时期,北极治理合作与动荡并存,“北极例外论”受到冲击,合作机制面临分裂,北极圈外国家迎来参与北极事务的新契机。
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the geopolitical spillover effect rapidly manifested itself in the Arctic region.Consequently,the Arctic policies of Arctic countries,led by the United States and Russia,have become""geopoliticized",the geopolitical value of the Arctic region has been re-emphasized and geopolitical competition in the Arctic has intensified.The eight Arctic countries have initiated a series of new strategic deployments in the region.Firstly,the political and military"new cold war"situation,with the United States leading the"NATOization"of the Arctic and strategically squeezing Russia,while Russia is accelerating the construction of a strategic defense line in the northern region;secondly,extreme economic pressure and countermeasures,with the United States and the West increasing sanctions against Russia's Arctic gas projects,and Russia countering by accelerating the economic countermeasures.Thirdly,institutional"circleization":the formation of the A7 compelled Russia to"withdraw from the group"in the Arctic governance mechanism,prompting Russia to seek partnerships with countries outside the region.There is significant divergence within the international community regarding the future direction of the Arctic governance mechanism.Fourthly,the"pan-security"of low-profile political issues have intensified competition in the fields of Arctic minerals and shipping channels.However,in terms of"motivation-ability","cost-benefit",and intermational consensus,there is an upper limit to geopolitical competition in the Arctic.Arctic governance will continue to promote"sectoral cooperation".In the future,Arctic governance will coexist with turbulence.The"Arctic exception"will be challenged,cooperation mechanisms will face divisions,and extra-regional states will welcome new opportunities to participate in Arctic affairs.
作者
张佳佳
郭培清
Zhang Jiajia;Guo Peiqing
出处
《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》
CSSCI
2024年第6期91-113,161,162,共25页
Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“美国北极战略演变的逻辑及中国应对研究”(23YJCGJW010)
中国博士后科学基金第74批面上资助项目“‘海洋命运共同体’理念下中国北极话语权构建研究”(2023M743335)的阶段性成果。
关键词
北极治理
北极理事会
北极航道
俄乌冲突
地缘政治
美俄关系
Arctic Governance
Arctic Councill
Arctic Sea Route
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
US-Russia relations
