摘要
外部力量介入与干涉是内战久拖未决的主要因素之一。传统观点认为,国际维和行动能够有效威慑和抑制外部力量对内战的支持。然而,这一观点缺乏系统性的证据和经验支持。部署维和行动很大程度上依赖于内战国政府的同意,而这可能对内战国政府和反叛组织产生非对称性影响,进而导致外部力量增加对反叛组织的支持。一方面,国际维和行动的部署可能会强化反叛组织及其潜在外部支持者的认知,即政府与反叛组织之间的权力平衡正在向政府倾斜,从而促使外部力量更加积极地支持反叛组织;另一方面,维和行动客观上更需要内战国政府的支持与合作,这增加了国际社会对政府的关注程度以及外部力量在支持政府时所面临的外部约束和声誉成本,外部力量因此会更有动机减少对政府的支持。作者通过分析1992—2017年全球内战国家的样本数据,采用多种定量研究方法系统检验了联合国与非联合国的维和行动对内战国政府与反叛组织所获外部支持产生的不同影响。统计结果发现,联合国与非联合国的维和行动均显著增加了外部力量对反叛组织而非对内战国政府的支持概率,并推动外部支持由出兵这一直接方式向提供武器和资金支持等间接方式转变。这些发现对系统理解内战中外部支持的动态变化以及提升国际维和行动的效果具有启示意义。
External involvement and intervention have been widely regarded as a major reason for the protracted nature of civil wars.Conventional wisdom holds that international peacekeeping operations can effectively deter and prevent third-party support for civil wars.However,this view lacks systematic evidence and empirical validation.This article argues that since the deployment of peacekeeping operations largely depends on the consent of host governments in civil war countries,it can exert an asymmetric impact on governments and rebel groups,leading to increased external support for rebel groups.On the one hand,the presence of international peacekeepers can reinforce the perception among rebel groups and their potential external supporters that the balance of power is shifting towards the government,thereby inciting increased support for the rebels.On the other hand,peacekeeping operations increase international attention to host governments of civil war countries,raising the reputational and audience costs for governments and their third-party supporters when violating international norms,thus subjecting them to more constraints and potentially reducing direct third-party support for host governments.Utilizing a civil war dataset from 1992 to 2017,this article employs various quantitative methods to examine the impact of United Nations(UN)and non-UN peacekeeping operations on external support for governments and rebel groups,respectively,in civil war countries.Statistical results reveal that both UN and non-UN peacekeeping operations significantly increase external support for rebel groups rather than host governments,and drive a shift in external support from direct means,such as troop support,to indirect means,such as the provision of weapons and funds.These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of external support during civil wars and for enhancing the effectiveness of international peacekeeping operations.
作者
吕蕙伊
司晓宇
陈冲
Lyu Huiyi;Si Xiaoyu;Chen Chong(the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University;International Relations and Tang Scholar at Tsinghua University)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第11期29-59,157,158,共33页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“应用大数据技术预测全球突发重大危机事件引发的社会骚乱研究”(项目批准号:20CGJ015)的阶段性成果。
关键词
维和行动
内战
反叛组织
联合国
第三方干涉
peacekeeping operations
civil wars
rebel groups
the United Nations
third-party intervention
