摘要
目的:分析老年人牙周炎的危险因素,构建并验证老年人牙周炎风险列线图模型。方法:选取2024年1月~2024年4月就诊患者560例,按7∶3比例分配,建模组393例,验证组167例,采用单因素和多因素逐步Logistic回归分析,筛选出与老年人牙周炎相关的影响因素,构建并验证基于这些因素的列线图模型。结果:560例研究对象中有364例患有牙周炎,患病率为65%。单因素分析显示,年龄、受教育程度、吸烟、刷牙次数、高血压、不良修复体、根分叉病变及口腔健康认知差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多元逐步回归分析结果显示,高血压、不良修复体、根分叉病变是老年人牙周炎的危险因素;年龄、受教育程度、刷牙次数、口腔健康认知是保护因素(P<0.05)。基于上述影响因素构建老年牙周炎患者的风险列线图模型,建模组及验证组AUC分别为0.860、0.825;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果分别为χ^(2)=3.718,P=0.929;χ^(2)=14.398,P=0.109;两组的校正曲线与理想曲线较为接近,决策曲线显示两组在较大范围的阈值概率下,模型均可获得收益。结论:本研究构建的老年人群牙周炎风险列线图模型具有较好的区分度、校准度及临床应用价值,可辅助医护人员及时、准确识别老年牙周炎患者。
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of periodontitis in the elderly,and to construct and validate the nomogram model of periodontitis in the elderly.Methods:Totally 560 patients were selected from January 2024 to April 2024,and were distributed in the ratio of 7∶3,with 393 cases in the modeling group and 167 cases in the validation group.Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analyses were used to screen out the influencing factors related to periodontitis in the elderly,and to construct and validate the nomogram model based on these factors.Results:Totally 364 of the 560 study subjects had periodontitis,with a prevalence of 65%.Univariate analysis showed that the differences in age,education level,smoking,frequency of tooth brushing,hypertension,poor restorations,root bifurcation lesions and oral health perception were statistically significant(P<0.05).The results of multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that hypertension,poor restorations,and root bifurcation lesions were independent risk factors for periodontitis in the elderly,and age,education,frequency of tooth brushing,and oral health awareness were protective factors(P<0.05).Based on the above influencing factors to construct the nomogram model of elderly periodontitis patients,the AUC of the modeling group and the validation group were 0.860 and 0.825,respectively.The results of the Hosmer-Leme-show goodness-of-fit test wereχ^(2)=3.718,P=0.929 andχ^(2)=14.398,P=0.109,respectively,the calibration curves for the two groups were closer to the ideal curve,and the decision curves show that the models were profitable for both groups for a wide range of threshold probabilities.Conclusion:The periodontitis nomogram model constructed in this study for the elderly population has good differentiation,calibration and clinical application value,and can assist healthcare professionals in timely and accurate identification of elderly patients with periodontitis.
作者
吴宣仪
张雅甜
祁进芳
王志伟
李振刚
董正惠
WU Xuan-yi;ZHANG Yatian;QI Jin-fang;WANG Zhi-wei;LI Zhen-gang;DONG Zheng-hui(School of Nursing,Xinjiang Medical University,Xinjiang Urumqi 830016,China;The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University,Xinjiang Urumqi 830002,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University,Xinjiang Urumqi 830054,China;Health Care Research Center for Xinjiang Regional Population,Xinjiang Urumqi 830016,China)
出处
《临床口腔医学杂志》
2024年第11期675-680,共6页
Journal of Clinical Stomatology
关键词
老年人
牙周炎
影响因素
列线图
The elderly
Periodontitis
Influencing factors
Nomogram
