摘要
海外能源投资建设是维护中国能源安全的坚实屏障,厘清中国海外能源布局的时空动态及其溢出效应,对调整投资方向和落实布局规划具有一定的参考意义。本文基于中国海外能源投资建设追踪信息集,借助固定面板回归模型、地缘政治风险指数和GIS空间分析等手段,揭示中国能源全球布局的结构演进特征,探讨中国能源全球布局的多重效应。研究发现:(1)中国能源全球布局呈现出“先升后降”的时序特征和明显的波动性,可再生能源成为主要增长极,布局失败率逐步下降。(2)中国能源全球布局始终由国企主导,但民企地位明显提升;企业区域分工趋弱,海外均衡化选址趋势明显。(3)发达国家(地区)在中国能源全球布局中的地位显著下滑,“一带一路”沿线项目占比明显提升。可再生能源积极外拓市场,且面临较低的地缘政治风险;传统能源相对稳定,但地缘政治风险明显升高。(4)中国能源全球布局具有隐含碳转出效应,传统能源全球布局具有油气进口效应,可再生能源全球布局具有能源转型效应。
Overseas energy investments serve as a critical safeguard for China’s energy security.Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and spillover effects of China’s global energy layout provides valuable insights for optimizing investment strategies and refining planning policies.This study utilizes the China Global Energy Investment Tracker,a fixed panel regression model,the geopolitical risk index,and GIS spatial analysis to examine the structural evolution and multifaceted impacts of China’s global energy investments.The key findings are as follows:1)China’s global energy layout follows a“rise-then-decline”temporal pattern characterized by significant fluctuations.Renewable energy has emerged as the primary growth driver,while project failure rates have steadily decreased.2)The energy layout remains predominantly led by state-owned enterprises(SOEs),although the role of private enterprises has grown substantially.The regional specialization of enterprises has weakened,showing a trend toward more balanced overseas site selection.3)The role of developed countries in China’s global energy layout has significantly diminished,while the proportion of projects located in Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries has increased markedly.Renewable energy projects are actively expanding into international markets,facing relatively lower geopolitical risks,whereas traditional energy projects remain stable but are increasingly exposed to heightened geopolitical challenges.4)China’s global energy layout exhibits implicit carbon transfer effects.Investments in traditional energy contribute to oil and gas import effects,while renewable energy projects play a pivotal role in advancing energy transition efforts.These findings offer critical perspectives for enhancing China’s overseas energy strategies in response to global energy transitions and the growing complexity of geopolitical risks.
作者
夏启繁
杜德斌
段德忠
张强
丁浚峰
Xia Qifan;Du Debin;Duan Dezhong;Zhang Qiang;Ding Junfeng(Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Center for World Geography and Geostrategic Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Geographic Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第11期1925-1935,共11页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD330)资助。
关键词
能源投资
多重效应
能源转型
隐含碳排放
地缘政治风险
energy investment
multidimensional effects
energy transition
embodied carbon emissions
geopolitical risk
