摘要
目的分析陕西省结核病发病率时间变化趋势, 为卫生组织有效控制结核病流行提供参考依据。方法使用Joinpoint回归分析陕西省2004—2022年结核病发病率变化趋势, 并采用季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型预测陕西省到2030年结核病的发病率。结果陕西省结核病发病率从2004年的90.896/10万降低至2022年的35.364/10万, 总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-7.72%, P<0.001), 2014—2019年, 降低趋势减缓(APC=-0.69%, P=0.814), 其中, 降幅最大发生在2019—2022年(APC=-13.26%, P=0.010)。陕西省2020—2022年结核病预测发病率均高于报告发病情况, 预测2022年发病率为51.342/10万, 2030年为43.468/10万。结论陕西省2004—2022年结核病发病率呈下降趋势, 但近年来降幅减小, 预测到2030年下降趋势将持续减缓。
ObjectiveTo analyze the temporal trends of the incidence rate of tuberculosis(TB)in Shaanxi Province and provide a reference for WHO to control the prevalence of TB effectively.MethodsJoinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2022,and the seasonal autoregressive moving average model was used to forecast the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province to 2030.ResultsThe incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province decreased from 90.896/100000 in 2004 to 35.364/100000 in 2022,showing a general downward trend(AAPC=-7.72%,P<0.001).From 2014 to 2019,the reduction trend slowed down(APC=-0.69%,P=0.814),of which the largest decline occurred from 2019 to 2022(APC=-13.26%,P=0.010).The predicted incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2022 was higher than the reported incidence rate,with the expected incidence rate of 51.342/100000 in 2022 and 43.468/100000 in 2030.ConclusionThe incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province shows a downward trend from 2004 to 2022,but the decline has shrunk in recent years.It is predicted that the downward trend will continue to slow down by 2030.
作者
吕恒梁
张宏伟
陈辉
柳希昊
张雪莉
张馨
白峻竹
游姝萌
徐元勇
张文义
Lyu Hengliang;Zhang Hongwei;Chen Hui;Liu Xihao;Zhang Xueli;Zhang Xin;Bai Junzhu;You Shumeng;Xu Yuanyong;Zhang Wenyi(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang110000,China;Department of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control,Shaanxi Provincial Institute for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention,Xi′an710048,China;Department of Disease Surveillance,Chinese People′s Liberation Army Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing100071,China;Department of Military Preventive Medicine,Air Force Medical University,Xi′an710000,China;School of Health Management Changchun University of Chinese Medicine,Changchun 130000,China)
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第11期1659-1664,共6页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
结核病
季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型
监测
陕西省
Tuberculosis
Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average
Surveillance
Shaanxi province
