摘要
近年来自然灾害频发,造成的威胁与冲击给农业生产以及农民生计带来了多重挑战。文章以长江流域为研究区域,使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用Logistic模型分析了自然灾害与生计韧性对农村劳动力外出就业的“推力-粘力”效应。一方面,从经济和社会两个角度验证了自然灾害对农村劳动力外出就业的“推力”作用。另一方面,分析灾害风险背景下农户生计韧性对降低农村劳动力因灾外流现象的“粘力”作用,旨在从自然环境角度为农村劳动力流动提供经验证据。研究发现:(1)自然灾害不仅会减少农业净收入,同时也会提升相对剥夺感,两种因素产生同向的推力效应导致农村劳动力外出就业。而那些生活在自然灾害频发区的农村劳动力会受到更大的负面影响。(2)新农合以及政府补贴等形式的生计韧性存在显著粘力,能够降低劳动力由于受到自然灾害冲击而外出就业的概率。(3)洪涝、台风等气象灾害以及农林病虫害导致粮食主产区的农村劳动力因灾外流的现象更为明显。同时各种自然灾害对于长江不同河段的农村劳动力外出就业的影响也有明显的异质性。(4)受到灾害冲击后,大部分农村劳动力会选择短期外出就业,该时间效应受到人力资本、家庭抚养情况以及务工收入等因素的影响。研究结论表明在气候变化与灾害频发的背景下,需要及时在灾后给予经济支持与心理疏导,并发挥补助与社会保障的粘性作用,对于减缓农村劳动力因灾外流的倾向,稳定农民留乡就业,保障粮食安全具有积极作用。
In recent years,extreme weather events have been a multiple challenge to agricultural production and farmers’increase.Using the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data,the Logistic model is applied to the Yangtze River Basin to discuss the“push-adhesion”effect of disaster risk and livelihood resilience on rural laborers'outgoing employment.The research results are as follows:(a)the natural disasters reduce rural labor net income and improve the relative deprivation,which would produce the same push effect,leading to rural labor migration.(b)Livelihood re⁃silience in the form of participating in social security and government subsidies has significant stickiness,which can re⁃duce the probability of labor going out for employment due to natural disasters.(c)The impact of agricultural disasters in major grain-producing areas leads to more obvious phenomenon of rural labor migration.Different natural disasters also have obvious heterogeneity in the choice of rural labor in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Riv⁃er.(d)The majority of individuals prefer to work for a short period of time,especially those with heavy care of family members and low human capital,who usually return home after earning a certain amount of salary.
作者
曾雪婷
安贤娟
盛亦男
向华
ZENG Xue-ting;AN Xian-juan;SHENG Yi-nan;XIANG Hua(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai Shandong,264000,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期74-86,共13页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
北京社科基金(一般)项目“共富振兴视域下北京生态涵养区农民收入与城市生态福利协同提升路径研究”(项目编号:23GLB026)。
关键词
自然灾害
农村劳动力
外出就业
生计韧性
“推力-粘力”理论
Natural Disaster
Rural Labor Force
Outgoing Employment
Livelihood Resilience
Push-Adhesion Theory
