摘要
减排是基础,增汇是保障,农业领域减排增汇是实现碳中和目标的潜力所在。为探索农业碳中和的有效路径,该研究基于2011—2021年长江经济带108个地级及以上城市的面板数据,测度农业碳补偿率,运用点度中心度、隶属度模型和Moran's I分析其空间分布、空间辐射和空间集聚格局;进一步结合收敛模型和空间计量模型分析其空间收敛特征;并运用空间计量模型识别农业碳补偿率的驱动因素及溢出效应。研究发现:①长江经济带农业碳补偿率上升趋势明显,但总碳汇仍不足以覆盖碳排放,且上、下游领先,中游落后;②中心城市自东向西演化趋势明显,分布格局演变为成都一极,苏州、长沙、武汉等八核心,杭州、岳阳等多点联动的“一极八核,多点带动”格局,上、中、下游“分区域,多核心”的趋势越加明朗;③空间集聚特征明显,且整体呈现协同演进的格局,上游城市协同互动减排增汇的趋势更加显著;④农业内部结构和绿色技术创新能力对碳补偿率的促进作用不仅来自直接效应,还有部分来自反馈效应,且邻近城市的农业内部结构、绿色技术创新能力和农业劳动力规模均有利于本地区碳补偿率的提升。基于该研究结论,建议创立农业碳中和示范区,领先城市与追随城市、边缘城市“强弱扶持”,加大区域间协同互动减排增汇力度,以“小区域”带动“大区域”实现农业碳中和。
Carbon emission reduction and sink enhancement in agriculture are the driving forces for the realization of the carbon neu-trality goal.To explore the effective paths of agricultural carbon neutrality,this study measured the agricultural carbon offset rate based on panel data from 108 prefectural-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2021.It also analyzed its spatial distribution,spatial radiation,and spatial agglomeration pattern using point centrality,the affiliation model,and the Moran's I in-dex.Furthermore,the study examined its spatial convergence characteristics by combining the convergence model and spatial econo-metric model,and identified the driving factors and spillover effects of the agricultural carbon offset rate using the spatial econometric model.The results found that:①The agricultural carbon offset rate in the Yangtze River Economic Zone had a clear upward trend,but the total carbon sink remained insufficient to cover carbon emissions,with upstream and downstream areas leading the middle reaches.②The central city's evolution had a pronounced trend from the east to the west,and the distribution evolved into a pattern of‘one pole and eight cores driven by multiple points,’and the trend of‘subregions and multiple cores’in the upstream,midstream,and down-stream areas became clearer.③Spatial agglomeration characteristics were evident and demonstrated a pattern of overall synergistic evolution;the trend of upstream cities having synergistic interaction in emission reduction and sink enhancement became more pro-nounced.④The promotion effect of agricultural internal structure and green technology innovation ability on carbon compensation rate not only came from direct effects but also partly from feedback effects.Moreover,the agricultural internal structure,green technology in-novation ability,and agricultural labor scale of neighboring cities were conducive to improving the carbon compensation rate in this re-gion.It is suggested to create an agricultur
作者
唐菁
张娜
易露
曾庆均
TANG Jing;ZHANG Na;YI Lu;ZENG Qingjun(Institute of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期76-92,共17页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“重点帮扶县回流人口创业促进乡村产业融合发展的机制与路径研究”(批准号:23CJY049)
重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目“成渝地区双城经济圈城市间产业协同发展的机制与路径研究”(批准号:21KJD078)
重庆工商大学研究生科研创新项目“韧性视角下长江经济带农业社会化服务推进生产绿色转型的作用机制和优化路径研究”(批准号:yjscxx2023-211-3)。
关键词
农业碳补偿率
空间辐射
空间集聚
收敛特征
驱动因素
agricultural carbon offset rate
spatial radiation
spatial agglomeration
convergence characteristic
driving factor
