摘要
基于2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),采用反事实分析方法将生育动机分为个人导向型和家庭导向型,探讨了早年留守经历对农村留守儿童成年后生育动机的影响。研究结果表明:早年留守经历会减弱农村留守儿童成年后家庭导向型生育动机,并加强其个人导向型生育动机;异质性分析表明留守经历主要弱化男性、“90后”、独生子女以及受过高等教育的群体的家庭导向型生育动机。而机制分析表明,农村留守儿童的留守经历会通过影响心理健康和社会地位进而影响其成年后的家庭导向型生育动机。进一步的分析发现,留守经历对仅父亲外出以及在0~3岁时经历留守的群体的家庭导向型生育动机的负面影响程度更深,且最终会降低其生育意愿。因此,应重点关注留守儿童的心理健康,尽力弥补其家庭父母教育和情感的缺失,以帮助其形成积极的生育观。
Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2020,this paper uses counterfactual analysis method to divide fertility motivation into the individual-oriented and family-oriented,and studies the influence of early rural left-behind experience on the fertility motivations of the young people.The research results show that: firstly, the early left-behind experience will weaken the family-oriented fertility motivation of the adults and aggravate their individual-oriented fertility motivation;secondly, the heterogeneity analysis shows that the left-behind experience mainly weakens the family-oriented fertility motivation of men, the post-90s, the only-child and highly educated groups. The mechanism analysis shows that the rural left-be-hind experience will affect their family-oriented reproductive motivation in adulthood through mental health and social status. Further analysis finds that left-behind experience has a deeper negative impact on family-oriented reproductive motivation in the group that only fathers went out and experienced left-behind at 0~3 years of age, and ultimately reduced their reproductive intention. Therefore, attention should be paid to the mental health of left-behind children, and efforts should be made to make up for the lack of family education and emotion, so as to help them form a positive reproductive motivation.
作者
吴华安
唐泽莲
李雨晴
WU Huaan;TANG Zelian;LI Yuqing(Institute of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Chongqing Finance and Economics College,Chongqing 401320,China)
出处
《人口与社会》
2024年第5期43-60,共18页
Population and Society
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“流动人口二代成年后面临的问题研究”(22&ZD196)
国家社会科学基金西部项目“典型都市圈‘进城落户新市民’可持续生计综合评价及政策保障研究”(19XJY006)。
关键词
留守经历
生育动机
青年群体
留守儿童
个人导向
家庭导向
left-behind experience
fertility motivation
youth group
left-behind children
individual orientation
family orientation
