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全球最低税实施的影响评估:基于BVD-Osiris和国别报告数据的测算分析(下)

An Impact Assessment on the Implementation of Global Minimum Taxation:Measurement and Analysis Based on BVD-Osiris and CbC Reporting Data(Part 2)
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摘要 三、结论与建议,作为对发于20世纪20年代、运行已逾百年的国际税收规则体系的最大一次改革,BEPS项目前后两个阶段的运行机制有显著不同。例如,BEPS1.0所倡导的共同方法采用各国自主选择实施的机制,而GMT方案的“互锁规则”则使得各辖区为保护自身优先征税权而不得不“被动”实施,且实现了对各辖区所受GMT影响的系统测算及动态跟踪(刘奇超等,2024),从而开启了全球税收实质共治的新局面。 Faced with the widespread implementation of the global minimum tax(GMT)scheme,it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the multi-dimensional impact of the GMT implementation from the perspective of economic calculation,so as to provide detailed data support for the theoretical and practical fields to carry out systematic research.From theoretical literature,the implementation of GMT is beneficial for stabilizing the global macro investment policy environment in the medium to long term,increasing the income level of corporate income tax(CIT)globally and in most jurisdictions,and incentivizing developing countries and investment centers to prioritize the introduction of Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax(QDMTT).According to empirical calculations,since 2018,there have been over 5,500 multinational enterprise(MNE)groups globally affected by GMT each year,showing an overall growth trend.The number of Chinese resident MNE groups affected by GMT has been increasing year by year,and the total number of enterprises reached 872 in 2023.According to the CbCR data of the OECD,if China chooses to implement QDMTT alone,it will obtain more tax revenue than it would achieve under the Income Inclusion Rule(IR)alone,and the tax revenue generated by implementing both QDMTT and IIR will be the highest.Benefiting from the protective effects of transitional policies and safe harbor rules,GMT will have limited impact on the tax interests of Chinese resident MNE groups and jurisdictions in the short term.From the perspective of policy recommendations,it is possible to comprehensively track the implementation progress of GMT in the jurisdiction and the alternative financial and tax incentive measures that do not belong to the"spin off benefits"of QDMTT.Priority should be given to implementing the"Chinese version"of QDMTT rules,and relevant tax preferential policies should be optimized and adjusted in a timely manner,gradually establishing a systematic,scientific,standardized and efficient tax expenditure system.
作者 孟晓雨 罗文淇 陈曦 刘奇超 MENG Xiaoyu;LUO Wenqi;CHEN Xi;LIU Qichao
出处 《国际税收》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第10期33-36,共4页 International Taxation In China
基金 国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济时代我国税收制度适配性研究”(项目编号:23&ZD064)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词 征税权 影响评估 报告数据 动态跟踪 测算分析 结论与建议 自主选择 运行机制 Global minimum tax Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax Pillar Two International taxation Tax policy impact assessment
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