摘要
阐明气候变化对流域水文模型参数的影响是分析参数可移植性、预估未来水量平衡组分的基础科学问题。基于CMIP6框架下3种数据来源(CNRM、IPSL和MRI)的气象信息,驱动HBV水文模型模拟赣江流域2015—2100年的月径流变化,量化并评估气候变化下控制径流模拟过程典型参数的敏感性和不确定性。研究结果表明:①未来降水增多或减少比持平情况下模型参数敏感性整体更高,其中土壤模块(计算土壤蒸散发和含水量)参数敏感性最高;②区分年内丰枯期与全年平均结果相比,响应模块(划分各径流组分)参数敏感性更高、未来增幅更大,且未来降水增多或减少均会使枯水期土壤模块和响应模块参数的敏感性增高,表明降水量及其年内分配会影响模型参数敏感性;③随机扰动响应模块参数导致的径流不确定性最大(贡献超50%),特别是未来降水增多情景下(超70%),因此,若未来气候变化使径流组分(快速、慢速流比例)大幅变化,需重点关注该模块参数。
Elucidating the impact of climate change on watershed hydrological model parameters is a fundamental scientific issue for analyzing parameter transferability and estimating future water balance components.Based on meteorological data from three global climate models(CNRM,IPSL and MRI)under the CMIP6 framework,the HBV hydrological model was used to simulate monthly runoff changes in the Ganjiang River basin from 2015 to 2100.The sensitivity and uncertainty of typical parameters controlling runoff simulation processes under climate change were quantified and evaluated.The major findings of this research are as follows:①In scenarios where future precipitation either increases or decreases,the sensitivity of model parameters is generally higher relative to the stable precipitation scenario,with the soil module parameters(which calculate soil evapotranspiration and water content)being most sensitive.②The amount and intra-annual distribution of precipitation could influence parameters′sensitivity.③If future climate change would significantly alter the proportions of runoff components(fast and slow flow),particularly under future scenarios of increased precipitation,more attention should be paid to the response module parameters.
作者
马秋梅
桂绪
熊立华
宋文婕
李继清
MA Qiumei;GUI Xu;XIONG Lihua;SONG Wenjie;LI Jiqing(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期556-568,共13页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2240201)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项经费资助项目(2023MS075)。
关键词
水量平衡
水文模型
气候变化
CMIP6
水循环过程模拟
water balance
hydrological modeling
climate change
CMIP6
water cycle process simulation
