摘要
为研究暴雨洪水模型中参数对模拟结果的影响,提高模型预测的精确性,以宁波市慈城新城为研究区域,基于SWMM模型,模拟了不同重现期及3种单峰雨型的设计降雨,利用修正Morris法和正交试验设计法对比分析了研究区内6个水文参数的局部与全局敏感性及变化趋势。结果表明:研究区流域径流系数的敏感参数为MaxRate、N-Perv和MinRate,三者具有高度显著影响,且敏感性随着降雨重现期的增加而减弱。同一重现期降雨下,雨峰位置不同导致参数敏感性变化规律有所不同。针对后峰雨型,Dstore-Imperv、Dstore-Perv和N-Imperv敏感性随重现期的增加而增强;前峰雨型和对称雨型反之。两种方法均能识别模型主要敏感参数,正交试验设计法更能定量描述参数影响的显著性水平。
To research the influence of parameters in the heavy rainfall and flood model on simulation outcomes and to enhance the predictive accuracy,we simulated the runoff in the Ningbo′s Cicheng New Town by SWMM model.The different recurrence intervals and three distinct single-peak rain patterns were designed.By modifing Morris screening method and orthogonal test,we compared and analyzed local and global sensitivity,along with trends for six hydrological parameters in the study area.The results revealed that within the study area,the runoff coefficient for the watershed was highly sensitive to MaxRate,N-Perv,and MinRate,with a diminishing sensitivity as rainfall recurrence interval increases.For the post-peak rainfall pattern,sensitivity increased with recurrence interval for Dstore-Imperv,Dstore-Perv,and N-Imperv.Conversely,for the pre-peak and symmetric rainfall patterns,the opposite was true.The study demonstrated that both methods can effectively identify primary model-sensitive parameters,with the orthogonal test method more accurately quantifying the significance of parameter effects.
作者
韩铭洋
胡金辉
桑梓杰
孙颖娜
HAN Mingyang;HU Jinhui;SANG Zijie;SUN Yingna(School of Hydraulic and Electric Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;Sino-Russian Cold Region Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Joint Laboratory,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)
出处
《水利水电快报》
2024年第2期11-18,共8页
Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information
基金
黑龙江省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202110212033)。
