摘要
本文运用耕地压力指数模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,分析海南省某地耕地资源紧张程度,并对2023—2032年耕地资源发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:2013—2022年,研究区耕地面积、粮食总产量、粮播面积、粮食自给率、复种指数等均呈下降趋势,耕地压力指数呈逐渐增大,耕地资源紧张程度逐年上升;耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食总产量、复种指数的级比检验值和C值均符合行灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,2023—2032年都将呈继续下降趋势,且粮食播种面积、粮食总产量和复种指数在现有基础上会降低50%以上,并提出有针对性的缓解措施,以期能为当地耕地保护政策的制定和实施提供借鉴。
The cultivated land pressure index model and grey GM(1,1)prediction model were used to analyze the degree of cultivated land resources shortage in a certain area of Hainan Province.and to predict the development trend of cultivated land resources from 2023 to 2032.The results show that from 2013 to 2022,the cultivated land area,total grain yield,grain sowing area,grain self-sufficiency rate,and multiple cropping index in the study area all showed a downward trend.The pressure index of cultivated land gradually increased,and the degree of shortage of cultivated land resources increased year by year;The grade ratio test values and C values of cultivated land area,grain sown area,total grain yield,and multiple cropping index all conform to the row grey GM(1,1)prediction model.From 2023 to 2032,they will continue to decline with the grain sown area,total grain yield,and multiple cropping index will still decrease by more than 50%on the existing basis.Targeted mitigation measures were proposed in hopes of providing reference for the formulation and implementation of local cultivated land protection policies.
作者
麦兰芳
MAI Lanfang(Hainan Guoyuan Land and Mineral Exploration Planning and Design Institute,Haikou,Hainan 570100)
出处
《热带农业工程》
2024年第4期63-66,共4页
Tropical Agricultural Engineering
关键词
耕地压力指数模型
灰色GM(1
1)预测模型
耕地资源
缓解措施
cultivated land pressure index model
Grey GM(1,1)prediction model
cultivated land resources
mitigation measures
