摘要
如何有效治理地方政府债务,是政策当局亟待解决的现实难题。本文基于2009年放松地方政府信贷监管的政策冲击,将地方国有工业企业资产与土地资产之和作为地方政府控制的杠杆资源的代理变量,采用双重差分法,考察信贷监管放松对地方政府债务的影响。研究发现,地方政府杠杆资源每增加1%,地方政府债务平均增加0.38%。信贷监管放松后,地方政府通过注入股权、提供政府补助等方式,帮助融资平台公司改善财务状况,使其开展债券融资活动,举借展期压力更小的长期债务。该效应主要体现在政府干预强、保增长压力大的城市。进一步研究发现,信贷监管放松,强化了融资平台公司的投融资功能,不仅帮助地方政府偿还原有债务,而且促使地方政府增加新的投资。本研究为理解地方政府债务运行逻辑提供一个新视角,对治理地方政府债务具有启示意义。
Although government debt provides strong financial support for expanding government investments and responding to external economic shocks,it will also elevate the macro leverage ratio and pose potential financial and overall economic risks.Therefore,countries around the world prioritize the management of government debt.Specifically,China has made significant decisions and arrangements focusing on strengthening local government debt management and preventing and mitigating associated risks.Exploring the internal mechanism of local government debt formation is central to fending off and defusing local government debt risk.Historically,in the context of local government investment competition,local governments have leveraged their soft budget constraints to fuel a strong investment impulsion,but also lead to economic cycle fluctuations and impacting the stability of economic operation.Following the enactment of the Budget Law of the People's Republic of China in 1994,independent borrowing channels for local govermments were restricted,effectively hardening their soft budget constraints and stabilizing local government investments.However,in response to the severe impact of the global financial crisis,the People's Bank of China and the former China Banking Regulation Commission issued the"Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening Credit Structure Adjustment to Promote Stable and Rapid Economic Development"(No.92 Document).This document relaxed credit regulations of local governments,allowing them to use local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)for off-budget borrowing,thereby rekindling local governments'investment impulse.Consequently,local governments could bypass institutional constraints,directly injecting their resources into LGFVs to improve their financial indicators or using their resources as guarantee to help these LGFVs finance,thereby rapidly expanding local government debt.By employing a difference-in-differences(DID)strategy and taking the sum of local state-owned industrial enterprise assets and lan
作者
余家林
刘瑞明
YU Jialin;LIU Ruiming(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Science;National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期39-57,共19页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA075、20&ZD118)
中国社会科学院青年人文社会科学研究中心社会调研项目(2025QNZX022)的资助。
关键词
信贷监管放松
融资杠杆
地方政府债务
债务治理
Credit Deregulation
Financial Leverage
Local Government Debt
Debt Governance
