摘要
农业现代化是加快建设农业强国、实现乡村全面振兴的关键基础。本研究基于技术诱导理论,系统阐释了农业现代化路径选择的理论逻辑,分析了发达国家农业现代化的经验路径,并利用2000—2021年我国31个省(区、市)(不包含港澳台地区)的面板数据和超越对数生产函数模型,实证分析了中国不同区域的要素产出弹性变化特征,提出了区域农业现代的适宜路径。研究结果表明,立足要素禀赋的技术创新路径,决定了农业现代化的模式方向。美国、日本、德国、以色列等典型发达国家的农业现代化路径,遵循了技术诱导的理论逻辑。2000年以来中国劳动力要素产出弹性为负,整体呈现“先减后增”的变化趋势。化肥要素产出弹性逐步减小且仅东部地区仍为正值,机械要素和土地要素产出弹性不断增长,二者优势最为明显的地区分别是东北和中部,也基本遵循技术诱导的内在逻辑。因而,在区域层面上,中国东部、中部、西部和东北分别适宜日本精耕细作集约型路径、德国生产集约与机械技术复合型路径、以色列环境优先与科技创新相结合的精准型路径和美国规模经营型农业现代化路径。
Agricultural modernization is the cornerstone for developing an agricultural powerhouse and accomplishing comprehensive rural revitalization in China.In contrast to previous research that often focused either on case studies or empirical analyses lacking feasible implications,this study based on induced innovation theory and systematically elucidates the theoretical rationale behind selecting pathways for agricultural modernization.It also discusses and concludes the experiences of agricultural modernization in developed nations.Then,using the panel data collected from 2000 to 2021 in 31 provinces(regions,cities)and employing translog production function to estimate the elasticities of agricultural inputs,it discusses the feasible pathways of agricultural modernization in different regions of China.The findings indicate that the paradigm of agricultural modernization is fundamentally shaped by technological innovation rooted in factor endowments.Notably,countries such as the United States,Japan,Germany,and Israel have followed a technological induction logic in their agricultural modernization pathways.Results show that the labor force has witnessed a trend of“U”shape since the 2000s.The elasticity of fertilizer has been decreasing in China while it remains positive in eastern region.The elasticities of machinery and land have been increasing during the surveyed period,with the biggest growth in northeast and central regions.And these trends basically follow the internal logic of technology induction.It is suggested that the agricultural mode of Japan,Germany,Israel and the United States are suitable for agrimodernization pathways of eastern,central,western and north-eastern China,respectively.
作者
洪宇
陈秧分
刘坚
HONG Yu;CHEN Yang-fen;LIU Jian(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies(IAMO),Halle 06120,Germany)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期355-365,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD093)
农业农村部发展规划司委托课题(B020101)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-04-2024)。
关键词
农业现代化
发展路径
技术诱导
资源禀赋
区域农业
agricultural modernization
development pathway
induced innovation
resource endowment
regional agriculture
