摘要
针对复杂研发项目中存在的多源风险以及多源风险在项目间的级联传播问题,本文基于改进的贝叶斯网络模型构建了考虑多源风险和多状态的风险级联传播模型,在分析风险在项目组合网络中级联传播的基础上,通过韧性来测度项目组合网络中风险的级联传播效应。首先,分析多源风险导致的项目状态的动态变化,根据“发生风险的概率”和“风险扩散的概率”这两个指标将项目组合的各项目划分为四种状态。然后,基于多源风险和多状态构建了改进的贝叶斯网络模型,分析风险在项目组合网络中的级联传播过程以及风险级联传播导致的项目状态的动态变化。进一步,构建项目组合韧性的测度指标,通过分析项目组合鲁棒性、恢复初始绩效所需的时间和成本来测度风险级联传播对项目组合韧性的影响。最后,以某研发项目组合为例,验证了本文提出模型和方法的有效性。
Due to shared resources,similar technology and process requirements,overlapping target markets,and the diffusion of knowledge or experience among projects,there exist dependencies among various projects within the project portfolio.Also,because of these dependencies,risks occurring in one project can be transferred to other projects,potentially leading to the failure of the entire project portfolio.Aiming at the multi-sourced risk in complex R&D projects and risk propagation between projects,the paper builds a model of risk propagation considering multi-sourced risk and multi-stated problems caused by risk propagation based on the improved Bayesian network model.Firstly,the paper analyzes the multi-sourced risks and multi-stated problems in complex R&D project.Multi-sourced risks refer to different types of risks that exist during the process of project portfolio,such as technological risks,management risks,business risks,and external risks.Multi-stated refer to changes in project status caused by the occurrence of risks and the cascading propagation of risks within the project portfolio network.Based on the indicators of“the probability of risk occurrence”and“the probability of risk diffusion”,the paper classifies the projects in the portfolio into four states,specifically:1)The risk transferrer,which refers to the projects with a high probability of risk occurrence and a high probability of risk diffusion,indicating that the project is prone to risks and is likely to transfer these risks to other projects in the network.2)The risk terminator,which refers to projects with a high probability of risk occurrence but a low probability of risk diffusion,indicating that the project has encountered risks,but the team has excellent risk-handling capabilities and has effectively resolved these risks.And,the project accumulates rich knowledge and experience in the process and ensures that the risk does not transfer to other projects in the network.3)The risk immunizer,which refers to projects with a low probabilit
作者
邹星琪
ZOU Xingqi(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China)
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期192-198,共7页
Operations Research and Management Science
基金
云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(KKRD202208032)
云南省科技厅青年基金项目(KKSQ202308017)
昆明理工大学校精品培育项目(KKXA202308007)
昆明理工大学校人培基金(KKZ3202308062)。
关键词
项目组合网络
风险级联传播
韧性测度
改进贝叶斯网络
the project portfolio network
risk propagation
resilience analysis
the improved Bayesian network
