摘要
本文提出了“产出-通胀”空间再分割和“菲利普斯曲线束”两个新型研究理念,并深入探讨如何防范实体经济风险和规划经济复苏路径。研究发现:第一,近期中国的菲利普斯曲线呈现出“逆位反转”特征,表明供需关系仍处于失衡状态;第二,实体经济运行是否面临风险,不仅取决于产出增速和通货膨胀水平,还会受到菲利普斯曲线斜率的影响,低产出、低通胀结合“逆位反转”的菲利普斯曲线,才是真正的风险预警信号;第三,现阶段中国经济已具备稳中向好的可行发展路径,考虑到前期基数效应,中高速到适度高速的经济增长及温和的弱通货膨胀,可作为短期内经济复苏的目标区间;第四,当下单一经济政策已很难令经济驶入目标区域,采取“社会融资规模扩张+减税”的政策组合,有利于产出、通胀和菲利普斯曲线斜率的协同修复。
During the post-epidemic period,China's economic recovery has faced difficulties associated with persistently weakening long-term demand.This unusual divergence of trends suggests that the Phillips curve in China may have inverted,evolving into a left-skewed,upward-sloping curve.An inverted Phillips curve is an alarming economic signal of unsteadiness in the state of constant output growth and price deflation.Specifically,means that the output-inflation combination will eventually shift from the lower right to the upper left along the inverted Phillips curve when the economy realizes a bottom equilibrium of low output and high inflation.This scenario is similar to the eve of“"stagflation"in the United States.Hence,China's economic recovery continues to face several potential risks;accordingly,demand management and inflation govermance are now the core tasks needed to maintain stable growth and guard against risks.This paper comprehensively and mechanistically analyzes how weak economic recovery occurs during the post-epidemic period and discusses in depth how a classical economic crisis can be prevented ex ante and the appropriate guidance for economic recovery.The major conclusions are summarized as follows.First,the fundamental causes of the inversion of China's Phillips curve are constant demand contraction and inner rotation verticalization of the supply curve.Second,this paper proposes the principle of output-inflation spatial re-segmentation,in which the traditional two-dimensional space of output-inflation is re-segmented using the slope of the Phillips curve to identify the safe,crisis and early warning zones of economic operation.It shows that the Chinese economy is yet to completely escape the warning zone.Policy instruments are needed to guide the economy rapidly into the safe zone.Third,this paper proposes a new principle of Phillips curve set research.Taking a combination of loci in the y-p two-dimensional rectangular coordinate system as a benchmark,feasible empirical solutions are planned for all
作者
刘达禹
徐斌
宋洋
LIU Dayu;XU Bin;SONG Yang(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2024年第2期1-18,共18页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD064)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJA790046)
西南财经大学“双一流”建设项目(220110004006000055)的资助。
